Sampdoria vs Arezzo Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Sampdoria 1-2 Arezzo.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Sampdoria, 28% draw, 27% Arezzo — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Sampdoria at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sampdoria vs Arezzo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1P. VindahlG
- 29A. Di PardoD
- 13L. RavanelliD
- 15F. Delli CarriD
- 7M. CicconiD
- 6L. HendersonM
- 45A. MakoumbouM
- 28O. AbildgaardM
- 16Y. VerschaerenM
- 11T. BegićM
- 9T. LauritsenF
- 23F. DepaoliD
- 25A. FerrariD
- 3S. GartenmannD
- 14Yann KaramohF
- 96S. MassoloG
- 43K. MbabuD
- 99G. TutinoF
- 12Andrey KrastevG
- 14A. NunzianteG
- 6A. RenziD
- 13M. GilliD
- 4M. CoppolaroD
- 37S. RighettiD
- 24L. ChiericoM
- 30A. ArenaM
- 16Mattia SalaM
- 8S. MawuliM
- 21C. TavernelliM
- 9A. CerriF
- 32A. CagnanoD
- 71P. CianciF
- 67Gianmarco FerrariD
- 78Gennaro IaccarinoM
- 17A. IoniţăM
- 7Giuseppe Kevin LeoneM
- 33D. ManciniD
- 11L. MancusoF
- 47Aleandro ManesM
Form going into Sampdoria vs Arezzo
Sampdoria
All competitions we cover
- L1-4away to Avellino9 October 2026
- W2-1Catanzaro19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Mantova13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Palermo7 September 2026
- L1-2Juve Stabia29 August 2026
Arezzo
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Cremonese10 October 2026
- L1-4Sudtirol20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Empoli11 September 2026
- L0-5away to Hellas Verona6 September 2026
- L2-3Palermo30 August 2026
What these results say
- Sampdoria conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sampdoria failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sampdoria scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Arezzo failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Sampdoria | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 11 |
| 14 | Arezzo | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Arezzo won 2–1 at Sampdoria. The model had leaned towards a win for Sampdoria at 45% and given a win for Arezzo 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Liam Henderson 9' for Sampdoria, Alessandro Arena 15' for Arezzo, Luca Chierico 60' for Arezzo. On expected goals it finished 2.70–0.97.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sampdoria a 42.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 37.7% after a win, 45.1% after a draw, 48.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 48.9%, 6.3 points higher than before the match.
For Arezzo the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 50.1% going in: 42.8% after a win, 48.5% after a draw, 55.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 42.8%, 7.3 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.