18 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

Juve Stabia vs Sudtirol Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Romeo Menti, Castellammare di Stabia
Referee: Rapuano Andrea
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Juve Stabia 3-0 Sudtirol.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Juve Stabia, 32% draw, 31% Sudtirol — fair odds of 2.70, 3.13 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Juve Stabia at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Juve Stabia99%Draw1%Sudtirol0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

18'
Aljosa Vasic
Marco Bellich
26'
29'
Riccardo Stivanello
Giusepe Sibilli
40'
⚽Giusepe Sibilliassist: Fabio Maistro
43'
59'
Vasco Rafael Fortes Lopes
66'
🔁Alvin Okoroout: Kenny Meddy Mixtur
66'
🔁Aljosa Vasicout: Rares Burnete
🔁Fabio Maistroout: Romeo Sandrucci
67'
🔁Justin Kumiout: Thomas Battistella
67'
🔁Federico Artioliout: Nermin Karić
72'
⚽Antonio Di Nardoassist: Marco Bellich
73'
76'
🔁Fabio Rispoliout: Dhirar Brik
🔁Antonio Di Nardoout: Leonardo Candellone
81'
🔁Giusepe Sibilliout: Sana Fernandes
82'
83'
🔁Riccardo Stivanelloout: Mattia Pellini
⚽Romeo Sandrucciassist: Terrence Douglas
84'
Nermin Karić
88'

Match stats — Juve Stabia vs Sudtirol

66%Possession34%
22Shots6
9On target2
2Corners3
2.77xG0.3

Goals against chances

Juve Stabia3 from 2.77 xGabout what the chances were worth
Sudtirol0 from 0.30 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Juve Stabia 4-3-3
  • 1A. VukovićG
  • 96T. MaggioniD
  • 87D. BettellaD
  • 6M. BellichD
  • 25T. DouglasD
  • 10C. PierobonM
  • 80F. ArtioliM
  • 24J. KumiM
  • 37F. MaistroF
  • 9Antonio Di NardoF
  • 33G. SibilliF
Substitutes
  • 23P. BoerG
  • 5T. BattistellaM
  • 27L. CandelloneF
  • 92F. GalleaD
  • 8D. BuglioM
  • 17N. KarićM
  • 77S. FernandesF
  • 7Nicola PatanèF
  • 11K. PiscopoF
Coach: P. De Giorgio
Sudtirol 3-4-2-1
  • 22A. PlizzariG
  • 4R. StivanelloD
  • 55A. GiorginiD
  • 27G. StabileD
  • 79S. MolinaM
  • 10Fabio RispoliM
  • 5S. TronchinM
  • 24S. DavìM
  • 11Vasco LopesM
  • 14A. VasicM
  • 90A. OkoroF
Substitutes
  • 23F. DaviD
  • 17L. AnghelèF
  • 46D. BrikM
  • 9R. BurneteF
  • 25K. MixturF
  • 19M. PelliniD
  • 1Lukas PlonerG
  • 80Elias SchrootM
  • 21F. TaitM
Coach: D. Possanzini

Form going into Juve Stabia vs Sudtirol

Juve Stabia

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Virtus Entella10 October 2026
  • D1-1Cesena18 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Vicenza Virtus12 September 2026
  • L0-3Pisa6 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Sampdoria29 August 2026

Sudtirol

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0Ascoli10 October 2026
  • W4-1away to Arezzo20 September 2026
  • D1-1Modena12 September 2026
  • W2-0Catanzaro5 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Benevento30 August 2026

What these results say

  • Juve Stabia conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Juve Stabia failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Juve Stabia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Sudtirol went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Sudtirol scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Sudtirol had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Juve Stabia114431211+112
12Sudtirol113621312+115

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Juve Stabia vs Sudtirol

  • 8 May 2026Sudtirol 1–1 Juve StabiaSerie B
  • 27 December 2025Juve Stabia 1–0 SudtirolSerie B
  • 27 April 2025Sudtirol 2–0 Juve StabiaSerie B
  • 6 December 2024Juve Stabia 2–1 SudtirolSerie B

Leading scorers: Juve Stabia and Sudtirol

Juve Stabia

GoalsAssists

  • Antonio Di Nardo70

Sudtirol

No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Juve Stabia beat Sudtirol 3–0. The model had made a win for Juve Stabia its most likely outcome, at 37%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Giusepe Sibilli 43' for Juve Stabia, Antonio Di Nardo 73' for Juve Stabia, Romeo Sandrucci 84' for Juve Stabia. Sent off: Vasco Rafael Fortes Lopes (Sudtirol) 59'. On expected goals it finished 2.77–0.30.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Juve Stabia a 25.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 19.7% after a win, 25.9% after a draw, 29.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 19.7%, 5.3 points lower than before the match.

For Sudtirol the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 25.3% going in: 30.9% after a win, 24.2% after a draw, 21.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 21.3%, 4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.