19 October 2026, 22:30 UTC

Goias vs Nautico Recife Serie B prediction & result

Goiania
Referee: Yuri Elino Ferreira Da Cruz
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Goias 0-0 Nautico Recife.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Goias, 27% draw, 27% Nautico Recife — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Goias at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Goias5%Draw92%Nautico Recife3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

57'
🔁Paulo Sérgioout: Kauan Almeida da Costa
57'
🔁Derek Freitas Ribeiroout: Todinho
🔁Nicolas Vichiatto Da Silvaout: Rodrigo Soares
58'
🔁João Paulo Ferreira Lourençoout: Carlos Eduardo de Sousa Leopoldino
59'
🔁Carlos Eduardo Amaral Pereira de Castroout: Geirton Marques Aires
70'
71'
🔁Benjamín Borasiout: Victor Andrade
🔁Lucas Rodriguesout: Wellington Rato
76'
🔁Lucas Limaout: Jean Carlos
77'
80'
🔁Luiz Felipeout: Samuel
80'
🔁Wenderson da Silva Costa Ferreiraout: Auremir
Filipe Machado
83'
Luiz Felipe Clemente de Almeida
90+4'

Match stats — Goias vs Nautico Recife

56%Possession44%
26Shots21
5On target4
13Corners8
1.91xG1.34

Goals against chances

Goias0 from 1.91 xGless than the chances were worth
Nautico Recife0 from 1.34 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Goias 4-1-4-1
  • 23TadeuG
  • 54Djalma SilvaD
  • 4Ramon MenezesD
  • 14Lucas RibeiroD
  • 6NicolasD
  • 5Filipe MachadoM
  • 10Lucas LimaM
  • 97LourençoM
  • 35LuquinhasM
  • 18CaduM
  • 11Felipe ClementeF
Substitutes
  • 27Wellington RatoM
  • 1Thiago RodriguesG
  • 2Rodrigo SoaresD
  • 25Luis FellipeD
  • 40KaduF
  • 8JuninhoM
  • 21Jean Carlos Alves FerreiraM
  • 77HalerrandrioF
  • 28GegêM
Coach: Mozart
Nautico Recife 4-2-3-1
  • 55G. GuruceagaG
  • 93Reginaldo LopesD
  • 3AlbertoD
  • 23Igor FernandesD
  • 6RyanD
  • 27Luiz FelipeM
  • 8WendersonM
  • 72DerekM
  • 7ViníciusM
  • 24B. BorasiM
  • 9Paulo SérgioF
Substitutes
  • 11Victor AndradeF
  • 16Luiz CláudioF
  • 34WandersonD
  • 5AuremirM
  • 60Luiz PauloD
  • 32Leonardo Joventino HonorioG
  • 22P. NúñezM
  • 29Júnior TodinhoF
  • 41SamuelM
Coach: Bruno Pivetti

Form going into Goias vs Nautico Recife

Goias

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0away to Operario-PR11 October 2026
  • W2-1Athletic Club6 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Novorizontino2 October 2026

Nautico Recife

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2Vila Nova11 October 2026
  • L0-2Novorizontino8 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Fortaleza EC3 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Goias38177143944-558
15Nautico Recife381210164151-1046

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Goias vs Nautico Recife

  • 28 June 2026Nautico Recife 0–1 GoiasSerie B
  • 6 October 2021Nautico Recife 3–2 GoiasSerie B
  • 10 July 2021Goias 0–1 Nautico RecifeSerie B
  • 7 October 2017Goias 2–0 Nautico RecifeSerie B
  • 20 June 2017Nautico Recife 2–3 GoiasSerie B
  • 8 November 2016Nautico Recife 1–0 GoiasSerie B

Leading scorers: Goias and Nautico Recife

Goias

GoalsAssists

  • Kadu111

Nautico Recife

GoalsAssists

  • Vinícius93

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Goias and Nautico Recife drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Goias at 46% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 1.91–1.34.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Nautico Recife a 13.0% chance to finish in the bottom four: 3.4% after a win, 11.3% after a draw, 17.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 11.3%, 1.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Goias v Nautico Recife has moved

First published on 5 Oct at 39% / 29% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 46% / 27% / 27%: the biggest move is Goias's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. Goias win46%▲ +7
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. Nautico Recife win27%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.