27 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Mantova vs Cremonese Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Danilo Martelli, Mantova
Referee: Rapuano Andrea
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Mantova 0-2 Cremonese.

Before kick-off the model made it 54% Mantova, 27% draw, 19% Cremonese — fair odds of 1.85, 3.70 and 5.26.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Mantova at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Mantova0%Draw1%Cremonese99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

1'
⚽Federico Bonazzoliassist: Jari Vandeputte
13'
🔁Alessandro Vogliaccoout: Sebastiano Luperto
24'
Simone Lottici Tessadri
🔁Ettore Gliozziout: Rares Ilie
45'
Stefano Cella
52'
🔁Tommaso Del Lungoout: Filippo Vesentini
57'
61'
🔁Giuseppe Pezzellaout: Marco Nasti
64'
Tommaso Berti
65'
Tommaso Barbieri
Alessio Castellini
66'
🔁Davide Bragantiniout: matteo spinacce
71'
🔁Francesco Ruoccoout: Vanja Vlahovic
72'
74'
🔁Federico Bonazzoliout: Manuel De Luca
74'
🔁Jari Vandeputteout: Dachi Lordkipanidze
🔁Rachid Koudaout: Lorenzo Ignacchiti
79'
80'
⚽Marco Nastiassist: Dachi Lordkipanidze
84'
Tommaso Barbieri
Simone Trimboli
90+1'

Match stats — Mantova vs Cremonese

66%Possession34%
20Shots6
9On target5
5Corners2
1.97xG1.32

Goals against chances

Mantova0 from 1.97 xGless than the chances were worth
Cremonese2 from 1.32 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Mantova 4-1-4-1
  • 22F. BardiG
  • 58Tommaso Del LungoD
  • 5B. TomaševićD
  • 27A. CastelliniD
  • 50F. Benaissa-YahiaD
  • 29S. CellaM
  • 30D. BragantiniM
  • 21S. TrimboliM
  • 80R. KoudaM
  • 19F. RuoccoM
  • 9E. GliozziF
Substitutes
  • 25L. IgnacchitiM
  • 1L. GemelloG
  • 8R. IlieM
  • 6J. MboyoM
  • 75E. KošpoD
  • 13A. MeroniD
  • 17N. RadaelliD
  • 7M. SpinaccèF
  • 77F. VesentiniM
Coach: F. Modesto
Cremonese 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. FulignatiG
  • 4T. BarbieriD
  • 6F. BaschirottoD
  • 38A. VogliaccoD
  • 3G. PezzellaD
  • 2M. ThorsbyM
  • 8Simone Lottici TessadriM
  • 71S. EliaM
  • 14T. BertiM
  • 27J. VandeputteM
  • 90F. BonazzoliF
Substitutes
  • 22F. AgazziG
  • 9M. De LucaF
  • 12M. FestaG
  • 7D. StücklerF
  • 33A. GrassiM
  • 26Gabriel HerzuahF
  • 17A. LickūnasF
  • 25D. LordkipanidzeM
  • 5S. LupertoD
Coach: F. Pecchia

Form going into Mantova vs Cremonese

Mantova

Serie B

  • W1-0away to Virtus Entella24 October 2026
  • L0-2Palermo17 October 2026

Cremonese

Serie B

  • L0-1Juve Stabia24 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Pisa17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Mantova115421511+419
9Cremonese114341412+215

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Mantova vs Cremonese

  • 25 April 2025Cremonese 4–2 MantovaSerie B
  • 9 November 2024Mantova 1–0 CremoneseSerie B

Leading scorers: Mantova and Cremonese

Mantova

GoalsAssists

  • F. Ruocco50

Cremonese

GoalsAssists

  • F. Bonazzoli62

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Cremonese won 2–0 at Mantova. The model had leaned towards a win for Mantova at 54% and given a win for Cremonese 19%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Federico Bonazzoli 1' for Cremonese, Marco Nasti 80' for Cremonese. Sent off: Tommaso Barbieri (Cremonese) 84'. On expected goals it finished 1.97–1.32.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Mantova a 11.1% chance to finish in the top two: 12.5% after a win, 9.9% after a draw, 6.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.4%, 4.7 points lower than before the match.

For Cremonese the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 47.3% going in: 37.9% after a win, 47.3% after a draw, 50.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 37.9%, 9.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Mantova v Cremonese has moved

First published on 13 Oct at 39% / 28% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 54% / 27% / 19%: the biggest move is Mantova's chance of winning, up 15 points.

  1. Mantova win54%▲ +15
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Cremonese win19%▼ −14

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.