23 October 2026, 13:15 UTC

Chadormalu SC vs Esteghlal FC Persian Gulf Pro League prediction & result

Nassiri Stadium, Yazd
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Chadormalu SC 1-1 Esteghlal FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 28% Chadormalu SC, 28% draw, 44% Esteghlal FC — fair odds of 3.57, 3.57 and 2.27.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Esteghlal FC at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Chadormalu SC3%Draw93%Esteghlal FC4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

29'
⚽J. Asaniassist: E. Gholizadeh
🔁S. Mohammadfarout: A. Anafjeh
31'
🔁M. Khosraviout: A. Kalbasi
46'
🔁S. M. Hosseiniout: R. Alborno
46'
⚽R. Mahmoudabadiassist: R. Mirzaei
54'
66'
J. Asani
67'
🔁S. Saharkhizanout: A. Koushki
67'
🔁R. Cheshmiout: A. Razzaghinia
67'
🔁E. Gholizadehout: M. Eslami
72'
H. Farabbasi
D. Torres
77'
79'
🔁J. Masharipovout: M. Ahmadi
🔁Rennyout: P. Lashak
85'
🔁R. Mirzaeiout: M. Tabatabaei
90+7'

Form going into Chadormalu SC vs Esteghlal FC

Chadormalu SC

Persian Gulf Pro League

  • W2-1away to ZOB Ahan18 October 2026
  • D2-2Kheybar Khorramabad9 October 2026

Esteghlal FC

Persian Gulf Pro League

  • W1-0Gol Gohar19 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Tractor Sazi8 October 2026
  • W1-0Paykan10 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Persian Gulf Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Chadormalu SC124531215-317
5Esteghlal FC11560145+921

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Chadormalu SC vs Esteghlal FC

  • 5 October 2025Chadormalu SC 1–1 Esteghlal FCPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 8 May 2025Esteghlal FC 0–0 Chadormalu SCPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 26 December 2024Chadormalu SC 0–0 Esteghlal FCPersian Gulf Pro League

The result against the call

Chadormalu SC and Esteghlal FC drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Esteghlal FC at 44% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: J. Asani 29' for Esteghlal FC, R. Mahmoudabadi 54' for Chadormalu SC.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Esteghlal FC a 38.2% chance to finish in the top two: 57.8% after a win, 25.0% after a draw, 14.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 25.0%, 13.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Persian Gulf Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Chadormalu SC v Esteghlal FC has moved

First published on 8 Oct at 26% / 28% / 46% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 28% / 28% / 44%: the biggest move is Chadormalu SC's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Chadormalu SC win28%▲ +2
  2. Draw28%=
  3. Esteghlal FC win44%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.