Coritiba vs Botafogo Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Coritiba 1-1 Botafogo.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Coritiba, 26% draw, 34% Botafogo — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Coritiba at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Coritiba vs Botafogo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Pedro LuccasG
- 14F. BustosD
- 23Tiago CóserD
- 55JacyD
- 6Felipe JonatanD
- 21Thiago SantosM
- 19S. GómezM
- 32Pedro RochaM
- 10JosuéM
- 7J. LavegaM
- 18Paulo RobertoF
- 2TingaD
- 4Rodrigo MoledoD
- 5N. FonsecaM
- 17B. OcampoF
- 3MaiconD
- 22Pedro RangelG
- 99Rodrigo RodriguesF
- 66Rodrigo GeladoD
- 39GustavoM
- 12Gabriel BatistaG
- 2VitinhoD
- 5N. FerraresiD
- 21MarçalD
- 13Alex TellesD
- 8Danilo SantosM
- 25AllanM
- 22H. ZiyechM
- 6C. MedinaM
- 11Matheus MartinsM
- 19Arthur CabralF
- 37K. BarriaF
- 91Domingos AndradeM
- 90DaniloF
- 75HuguinhoM
- 7Júnior SantosF
- 34G. JustinoD
- 59Kauan ToledoM
- 10Álvaro MontoroM
- 29PaulinhoD
Form going into Coritiba vs Botafogo
Coritiba
All competitions we cover
- L0-4away to Fluminense9 October 2026
- L0-5away to Vasco da Gama19 September 2026
- D3-3Atletico Paranaense12 September 2026
- L1-2Mirassol6 September 2026
- W3-2away to Remo31 August 2026
Botafogo
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Vasco da Gama7 October 2026
- L0-2away to Mirassol19 September 2026
- D1-1RB Bragantino12 September 2026
- D0-0Palmeiras6 September 2026
- L0-3away to Flamengo30 August 2026
What these results say
- Coritiba conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Coritiba had three goals or more.
- Coritiba failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Botafogo did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Botafogo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Coritiba | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 42 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 46 | 53 | -7 | 42 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Coritiba vs Botafogo
- 12 April 2026Botafogo 2–2 CoritibaSerie A
- 30 November 2023Coritiba 1–1 BotafogoSerie A
- 30 July 2023Botafogo 4–1 CoritibaSerie A
- 17 September 2022Botafogo 2–0 CoritibaSerie A
- 29 May 2022Coritiba 1–0 BotafogoSerie A
Leading scorers: Coritiba and Botafogo
Coritiba
GoalsAssists
- Pedro Rocha91
- Breno Lopes81
Botafogo
GoalsAssists
- Danilo Santos102
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Coritiba and Botafogo drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Coritiba at 40% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Marçal (own goal) 22' for Coritiba, Danilo dos Santos de Oliveira 34' for Botafogo. On expected goals it finished 1.16–0.93.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Coritiba a 2.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: under 1% after a win, 2.9% after a draw, 3.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 2.9%, 0.6 points higher than before the match.
For Botafogo the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 2.4% going in: under 1% after a win, 1.4% after a draw, 4.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 1.4%, 1 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Coritiba v Botafogo has moved
First published on 28 Sep at 39% / 28% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 40% / 26% / 34%: the biggest move is the draw, down 2 points.
- Coritiba win40%▲ +1
- Draw26%▼ −2
- Botafogo win34%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.