12 October 2026, 21:30 UTC

Gimnasia Mendoza vs Newell's Old Boys Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Victor Legrotaglie, Mendoza
Referee: Juan Cruz Robledo
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Gimnasia Mendoza 1-0 Newell's Old Boys.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Gimnasia Mendoza, 31% draw, 28% Newell's Old Boys — fair odds of 2.44, 3.23 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Gimnasia Mendoza at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Gimnasia Mendoza97%Draw3%Newell's Old Boys0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

29'
•Santiago Germán Solari Ferreyra
49'
Luca Regiardo
⚽Agustín Módicaassist: Matías Vargas
58'
60'
Lucas Carrizo
62'
🔁Luca Regiardoout: Jerónimo Gómez Mattar
63'
🔁Facundo Samuel Guchout: Alan Soñora
🔁Diego Mondinoout: Germán Guiffrey
63'
🔁Matías Vargasout: Nahuel Barboza
63'
Matías Emiliano Recalde
65'
🔁Luciano César Cingolaniout: Martín Úbeda
71'
🔁Fermin Antoniniout: Blas Armoa Nunez
71'
77'
🔁Franco Escobarout: Juan Ignacio Ramírez
🔁Esteban Fernándezout: Lautaro Carrera
81'
89'
🔁Santiago Germán Solari Ferreyraout: Walter Nunez
89'
🔁Rodrigo Herreraout: Francisco Scarpeccio
Nahuel Barboza
90+4'

Match stats — Gimnasia Mendoza vs Newell's Old Boys

39%Possession61%
9Shots14
2On target1
1Corners7
0.37xG2.4

Goals against chances

Gimnasia Mendoza1 from 0.37 xGmore than the chances were worth
Newell's Old Boys0 from 2.40 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Gimnasia Mendoza 4-2-3-1
  • 23C. RigamontiG
  • 32L. ParedesD
  • 2D. MondinoD
  • 4E. MuñozD
  • 3M. RecaldeD
  • 30E. FernándezM
  • 21F. AntoniniM
  • 26F. LencioniM
  • 8M. VargasM
  • 7L. CingolaniM
  • 9A. MódicaF
Substitutes
  • 27B. ArmoaF
  • 5N. BarbozaM
  • 42L. CarreraM
  • 19J. CeballosM
  • 22J. FrancoD
  • 16G. GuiffreyD
  • 31L. PetruchiG
  • 11S. RodríguezF
  • 35V. SimoniF
Coach: D. Franco
Newell's Old Boys 4-3-3
  • 30J. ReinattiG
  • 6M. OrtegaD
  • 25B. CabreraD
  • 16L. CarrizoD
  • 24F. EscobarD
  • 5L. RegiardoM
  • 20Facundo GauchM
  • 26R. HerreraM
  • 7W. MazzanttiF
  • 9M. CóccaroF
  • 32S. SolariF
Substitutes
  • 27L. GómezM
  • 23N. GoiteaD
  • 19J. MattarM
  • 4A. MonteroM
  • 33W. NúñezF
  • 99I. RamírezF
  • 28J. RussoF
  • 39T. RiosF
  • 22O. SalomónD
Coach: F. Kudelka

Form going into Gimnasia Mendoza vs Newell's Old Boys

Gimnasia Mendoza

All competitions we cover

  • L0-3away to Estudiantes La Plata5 October 2026
  • D0-0Deportivo Riestra19 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Defensa Y Justicia11 September 2026
  • D2-2Boca Juniors5 September 2026
  • W3-0away to Independiente30 August 2026

Newell's Old Boys

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0Lanus3 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Platense20 September 2026
  • D1-1Velez Sarsfield11 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Rosario Central6 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Estudiantes La Plata31 August 2026

What these results say

  • Gimnasia Mendoza failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Newell's Old Boys went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Newell's Old Boys had two goals or fewer.
  • Newell's Old Boys failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Gimnasia Mendoza166461817+122
6Newell's Old Boys165831613+323

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Gimnasia Mendoza vs Newell's Old Boys

  • 21 March 2026Newell's Old Boys 1–0 Gimnasia MendozaLiga Profesional Argentina

Leading scorers: Gimnasia Mendoza and Newell's Old Boys

Gimnasia Mendoza

GoalsAssists

  • A. Módica140

Newell's Old Boys

No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Gimnasia Mendoza beat Newell's Old Boys 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Gimnasia Mendoza at 41%. The goal: Agustín Módica 58' for Gimnasia Mendoza. On expected goals it finished 0.37–2.40.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Gimnasia Mendoza these chances to finish in the top four: 24.6% after a win, 9.9% after a draw, 4.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 24.6%.

For Newell's Old Boys the question was the chance to finish in the top four: 29.1% after a win, 11.8% after a draw, 4.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 4.9%.

Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.