16 August 2026, 22:00 UTC

New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union Major League Soccer prediction & result

Yankee Stadium, New York
Full time2 – 3

Final score: New York City FC 2-3 Philadelphia Union.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% New York City FC, 25% draw, 36% Philadelphia Union — fair odds of 2.56, 4.00 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts New York City FC at 39% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1772 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union

New York City FC

  • D1-1Toronto FC31 July 2026
  • W3-1Chicago Fire25 July 2026
  • W2-1away to Columbus Crew22 July 2026

Philadelphia Union

  • W3-2Atlanta United FC1 August 2026
  • W1-0Seattle Sounders25 July 2026
  • W3-1New York Red Bulls22 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union

  • 1 March 2026Philadelphia Union 1–2 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
  • 24 November 2025Philadelphia Union 0–1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
  • 4 October 2025Philadelphia Union 1–0 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
  • 12 April 2025New York City FC 1–0 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
  • 18 September 2024New York City FC 1–5 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
  • 15 May 2024Philadelphia Union 1–2 New York City FCMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: New York City FC and Philadelphia Union

New York City FC

  • N. Fernández Mercau15 goals4 assists

Philadelphia Union

  • M. Iloski12 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.