Charleroi vs OH Leuven Jupiler Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Charleroi 3-1 OH Leuven.
Before kick-off the model made it 57% Charleroi, 24% draw, 19% OH Leuven — fair odds of 1.75, 4.17 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Charleroi at 57% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Charleroi vs OH Leuven
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30Mohamed KonéG
- 3Kevin Van Den KerkhofD
- 4Aiham OusouD
- 95Cheick KeitaD
- 24Mardochee NzitaD
- 6Amine BoukamirM
- 18Yassine KhalifiM
- 17Antoine BernierM
- 14Patrick PflückeM
- 10Parfait GuiagonM
- 21Aurélien ScheidlerF
- 19Isaac Ismaël CisséM
- 9Adama BojangF
- 8Jakob Napoleon RomsaasM
- 20Freddy MbembaF
- 25Antoine ColassinF
- 1Martin DelavalléeG
- 44Massamba SowD
- 65Rafaël TeugelsD
- 33Noah SolheidD
- 16Dani van den HeuvelG
- 28Ewoud PletinckxD
- 3Noë DussenneD
- 34Roggerio NyakossiD
- 27Óscar GilM
- 6Wouter GeorgeM
- 8Siebe SchrijversM
- 11Henok TeklabM
- 21William BalikwishaF
- 19Chukwubuikem IkwuemesiF
- 9Abdoul Karim TraoréF
- 26Takuya OgiwaraD
- 99Davis OpokuD
- 24Łukasz ŁakomyM
- 17Kyan VaesenF
- 20Shin YamadaF
- 1Tobe LeysenG
- 5Jamie LawrenceD
- 48Bryang KayoM
- 72Sebastian MurruM
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Charleroi | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 15 |
| 17 | OH Leuven | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Charleroi vs OH Leuven
- 9 August 2026Charleroi 3–1 OH LeuvenJupiler Pro League
- 19 May 2026Charleroi 1–1 OH LeuvenJupiler Pro League
- 25 April 2026OH Leuven 0–2 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
- 14 March 2026Charleroi 0–2 OH LeuvenJupiler Pro League
- 27 July 2025OH Leuven 2–2 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
- 24 May 2025Charleroi 2–1 OH LeuvenJupiler Pro League