31 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Charlotte vs Orlando City SC Major League Soccer prediction & result

Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte
Referee: V. Rivas
Full time4 – 0

Final score: Charlotte 4-0 Orlando City SC.

Before kick-off the model made it 52% Charlotte, 21% draw, 27% Orlando City SC — fair odds of 1.92, 4.76 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Charlotte at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Charlotte99%Draw1%Orlando City SC0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Henry Kesslerassist: Ashley Westwood
6'
25'
Iago Teodoro
45'
🔁Luis Otávio Costa de Aquinoout: Eduard Atuesta
45'
🔁Vinicius Nogueiraout: Adrián Marín
⚽Allan Saint-Maximinassist: Harry Toffolo
49'
Ashley Westwood
61'
62'
🔁Zakaria Taifiout: Justin Ellis
68'
🔁Marco Pašalićout: Harvey Graham Sarajian
🔁Ashley Westwoodout: Luca De La Torre
68'
73'
🔁Braian Ojedaout: Daryl Dike
🔁Liel Abadaout: Rodolfo Aloko
75'
🔁Idan Toklomati Jornoout: Tyger Smalls
81'
🔁Djibril Dianiout: Abdoulaye Doucouré
81'
82'
Iván Angulo
⚽Allan Saint-Maximin (pen)
84'
⚽Abdoulaye Doucouré
84'
•Allan Saint-Maximin
88'
Allan Saint-Maximin
89'
Tyger Smalls
90+3'
⚽Rodolfo Alokoassist: Tyger Smalls
90+4'

Match stats — Charlotte vs Orlando City SC

44%Possession56%
16Shots15
6On target8
4Corners4
2.34xG0.9

Goals against chances

Charlotte4 from 2.34 xGmore than the chances were worth
Orlando City SC0 from 0.90 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Charlotte 4-2-3-1
  • 1K. KahlinaG
  • 14N. ByrneD
  • 44M. AgyemangD
  • 22H. KesslerD
  • 15H. ToffoloD
  • 8A. WestwoodM
  • 28D. DianiM
  • 11L. AbadaM
  • 16Pep BielM
  • 10A. Saint-MaximinM
  • 9I. Toklomati GiornoF
Substitutes
  • 37R. AlokoF
  • 13B. BronicoM
  • 17L. de la TorreM
  • 6A. DoucouréM
  • 21T. MillerG
  • 4A. PrivettD
  • 71N. RichmondF
  • 23D. SchneggD
  • 25Tyger SmallsF
Coach: D. Smith
Orlando City SC 4-4-2
  • 71M. CrépeauG
  • 19Z. TaifiD
  • 16W. CartagenaD
  • 57IagoD
  • 27Vinícius NogueiraD
  • 87Marco PasalicM
  • 8B. OjedaM
  • 5Luis OtávioM
  • 77I. AnguloM
  • 7A. GriezmannF
  • 10M. OjedaF
Substitutes
  • 11TiagoF
  • 23Harvey SarajianF
  • 12Javier OteroG
  • 21N. MillerD
  • 35Joran GerbetM
  • 22Justin EllisF
  • 9D. DikeF
  • 20E. AtuestaM
  • 3Adrián MarínD
Coach: M. Perelman

Form going into Charlotte vs Orlando City SC

Charlotte

Major League Soccer

  • W4-0CF Montreal28 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Portland Timbers25 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Philadelphia Union17 October 2026

Orlando City SC

Major League Soccer

  • D2-2away to Chicago Fire29 October 2026
  • D2-2New York City FC24 October 2026
  • W4-1DC United17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Charlotte34159106651+1554
8Orlando City SC34137146378-1546

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Charlotte vs Orlando City SC

  • 22 April 2026Orlando City SC 4–1 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
  • 5 July 2025Charlotte 2–2 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
  • 14 May 2025Orlando City SC 3–1 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
  • 9 November 2024Orlando City SC 1–1 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
  • 1 November 2024Charlotte 0–0 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
  • 27 October 2024Orlando City SC 2–0 CharlotteMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Charlotte and Orlando City SC

Charlotte

GoalsAssists

  • I. Toklomati Giorno155

Orlando City SC

GoalsAssists

  • M. Ojeda164
  • A. Griezmann147

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Charlotte beat Orlando City SC 4–0. The model had made a win for Charlotte its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Henry Kessler 6' for Charlotte, Allan Saint-Maximin 49' for Charlotte, Abdoulaye Doucouré 84' for Charlotte, Rodolfo Aloko 90+4' for Charlotte. Sent off: Allan Saint-Maximin (Charlotte) 89'. On expected goals it finished 2.34–0.90.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Orlando City SC a 86.4% chance to finish in the top nine: 100.0% after a win, 91.4% after a draw, 80.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 80.0%, 6.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.