31 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union Major League Soccer prediction & result

TQL Stadium, Cincinnati
Referee: A. Chapman
Full time1 – 0

Final score: FC Cincinnati 1-0 Philadelphia Union.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% FC Cincinnati, 23% draw, 44% Philadelphia Union — fair odds of 3.03, 4.35 and 2.27.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Philadelphia Union at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Cincinnati93%Draw7%Philadelphia Union0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Samuel Mawuena Gidiout: Evander
45'
60'
🔁Benjamin Benderout: Jesus Bueno
60'
🔁Ezekiel Kwame Alladohout: Cavan Sullivan
🔁Kenji Mboma Demout: Ender Jesús Echenique Peña
64'
🔁Tom Barlowout: Ayoub Jabbari
64'
⚽Ayoub Jabbari
70'
74'
🔁Indiana Vassilevout: Agustin Anello
🔁Teenage Hadebeout: Alvas Powell
80'
🔁Kevin Denkeyout: Tah Anunga
88'
90'
🔁Jovan Lukicout: Malik Jakupovic

Match stats — FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union

51%Possession49%
7Shots15
2On target6
3Corners12
1.1xG1.14

Goals against chances

FC Cincinnati1 from 1.10 xGabout what the chances were worth
Philadelphia Union0 from 1.14 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Cincinnati 3-4-1-2
  • 18R. CelentanoG
  • 24K. SmithD
  • 4N. HagglundD
  • 15T. HadebeD
  • 17K. Mboma DemM
  • 11S. GidiM
  • 5O. NwobodoM
  • 29Bryan Josías Ramírez LeónM
  • 20P. BuchaM
  • 16T. BarlowF
  • 9K. DenkeyF
Substitutes
  • 27B. AnungaM
  • 88A. ChirilaD
  • 66E. EcheniqueF
  • 10EvanderM
  • 99A. JabbariF
  • 13E. LouroG
  • 70J. MartínezM
  • 2A. PowellD
  • 22G. ValenzuelaM
Coach: Pat Noonan
Philadelphia Union 4-4-2
  • 18A. BlakeG
  • 39F. WestfieldD
  • 44Neil PierreD
  • 26N. HarrielD
  • 27K. WagnerD
  • 33Q. SullivanM
  • 19I. VassilevM
  • 4J. LukićM
  • 16B. BenderM
  • 23E. AlladohF
  • 9B. DamianiF
Substitutes
  • 66F. SundstromD
  • 6Cavan SullivanM
  • 76A. RickG
  • 14J. RafanelloM
  • 2G. MartínezD
  • 51M. JakupovicF
  • 68J. GriffinD
  • 8J. BuenoM
  • 28A. AnelloF
Coach: Ryan Richter

Form going into FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union

FC Cincinnati

Major League Soccer

  • D2-2away to Inter Miami28 October 2026
  • W2-0away to DC United24 October 2026
  • W2-1DC United21 October 2026

Philadelphia Union

Major League Soccer

  • D0-0away to Nashville SC29 October 2026
  • L1-2New England Revolution24 October 2026
  • D2-2Charlotte17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9FC Cincinnati341210126775-846
6Philadelphia Union34148126652+1450

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union

  • 9 September 2026Philadelphia Union 5–0 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
  • 30 August 2025FC Cincinnati 0–1 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
  • 2 March 2025Philadelphia Union 4–1 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
  • 7 February 2025FC Cincinnati 4–1 Philadelphia UnionFriendlies Clubs
  • 20 October 2024Philadelphia Union 1–2 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
  • 13 August 2024FC Cincinnati 2–4 Philadelphia UnionLeagues Cup

Leading scorers: FC Cincinnati and Philadelphia Union

FC Cincinnati

GoalsAssists

  • K. Denkey173

Philadelphia Union

GoalsAssists

  • M. Iloski192

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Cincinnati beat Philadelphia Union 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Philadelphia Union at 44% and given a win for FC Cincinnati 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Ayoub Jabbari 70' for FC Cincinnati. On expected goals it finished 1.10–1.14.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Cincinnati a 88.2% chance to finish in the top nine: 100.0% after a win, 89.1% after a draw, 78.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 100.0%, 11.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on FC Cincinnati v Philadelphia Union has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 31% / 22% / 47% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 33% / 23% / 44%: the biggest move is Philadelphia Union's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. FC Cincinnati win33%▲ +2
  2. Draw23%▲ +1
  3. Philadelphia Union win44%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.