31 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

New York City FC vs CF Montreal Major League Soccer prediction & result

Yankee Stadium, New York
Referee: T. Ford
Full time1 – 1

Final score: New York City FC 1-1 CF Montreal.

Before kick-off the model made it 58% New York City FC, 25% draw, 17% CF Montreal — fair odds of 1.72, 4.00 and 5.88.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

New York City FC at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

New York City FC98%Draw2%CF Montreal0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Kevin O'Toole
23'
29'
Alexis Sanchez
38'
Daniel Pereira
⚽Andrés Pereaassist: Nicolás Fernández Mercau
41'
🔁Kevin O'Tooleout: Nico Cavallo
45'
47'
Olger Escobar
Jonathan Shore
52'
Talles Magno
55'
🔁Talles Magnoout: Luighi Hanri Sousa Santos
57'
🔁Jonathan Shoreout: Raul Bicalho
57'
🔁Bénie Adama Traoréout: Hannes Wolf
57'
🔁Andrés Pereaout: Keaton Parks
70'
73'
Viktor Radojević
74'
🔁Olger Escobarout: Fabian Herbers
74'
🔁Dawid Bugajout: Luca Petrasso
74'
🔁Samuel Pietteout: Matthew Longstaff
86'
🔁Gennadiy Synchukout: Daniel Rios
90'
Fabian Herbers
90+1'
⚽Daniel Rios

Match stats — New York City FC vs CF Montreal

53%Possession47%
12Shots10
4On target2
3Corners4
1.23xG0.68

Goals against chances

New York City FC1 from 1.23 xGabout what the chances were worth
CF Montreal1 from 0.68 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

New York City FC 4-3-3
  • 49M. FreeseG
  • 24T. GrayD
  • 13Thiago MartinsD
  • 6J. SandsD
  • 22K. O'TooleD
  • 7N. Fernández MercauM
  • 32J. ShoreM
  • 8A. PereaM
  • 26A. OjedaF
  • 11Talles MagnoF
  • 9B. TraoréF
Substitutes
  • 2Nico CavalloD
  • 27C. FlaxM
  • 88M. JonesF
  • 20Luighi HanriF
  • 3M. MiazgaD
  • 55K. ParksM
  • 34Raul GustavoD
  • 30T. RomeroG
  • 17H. WolfF
Coach: P. Jansen
CF Montreal 4-2-3-1
  • 41S. KeitaG
  • 27D. BugajD
  • 5B. CraigD
  • 4B. VeraD
  • 28V. RadojevićD
  • 6S. PietteM
  • 7D. PereiraM
  • 18H. SynchukM
  • 29O. EscobarM
  • 16W. CarmonaM
  • 10A. SánchezF
Substitutes
  • 13L. PetrassoD
  • 14D. RíosF
  • 17D. SealyF
  • 23N. StreitM
  • 24E. MoralesD
  • 22V. LoturiM
  • 8M. LongstaffM
  • 21F. HerbersF
  • 1S. BrezaG
Coach: Philippe Eullaffroy

Form going into New York City FC vs CF Montreal

New York City FC

Major League Soccer

  • W2-1Atlanta United FC28 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Orlando City SC24 October 2026
  • D1-1Los Angeles FC17 October 2026

CF Montreal

Major League Soccer

  • L0-4away to Charlotte28 October 2026
  • L0-2Nashville SC24 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Seattle Sounders18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11New York City FC341012124945+442
15CF Montreal3468203769-3226

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: New York City FC vs CF Montreal

  • 25 April 2026CF Montreal 1–0 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
  • 28 June 2025CF Montreal 1–0 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
  • 10 May 2025New York City FC 0–1 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
  • 20 October 2024CF Montreal 2–0 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
  • 3 July 2024New York City FC 2–0 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
  • 30 August 2023New York City FC 2–0 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: New York City FC and CF Montreal

New York City FC

GoalsAssists

  • N. Fernández Mercau166

CF Montreal

GoalsAssists

  • P. Owusu156

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

New York City FC and CF Montreal drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for New York City FC at 58% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Andrés Perea 41' for New York City FC, Daniel Rios 90+1' for CF Montreal. On expected goals it finished 1.23–0.68.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave New York City FC a 27.8% chance to finish in the top nine: 41.3% after a win, 6.7% after a draw, under 1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 6.7%, 21.1 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on New York City FC v CF Montreal has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 55% / 26% / 19% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 58% / 25% / 17%: the biggest move is New York City FC's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. New York City FC win58%▲ +3
  2. Draw25%▼ −1
  3. CF Montreal win17%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.