31 October 2026, 21:00 UTC

Los Angeles Galaxy vs Austin Major League Soccer prediction & result

Dignity Health Sports Park
Referee: L. Szpala
Full time4 – 1

Final score: Los Angeles Galaxy 4-1 Austin.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Los Angeles Galaxy, 25% draw, 29% Austin — fair odds of 2.17, 4.00 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Los Angeles Galaxy at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Los Angeles Galaxy99%Draw1%Austin0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Klaussassist: Harbor Miller
10'
23'
Besard Sabovic
⚽Hirving Lozanoassist: Marco Reus
38'
🔁Hirving Lozanoout: Robert Taylor
45'
⚽Robert Taylorassist: Marco Reus
48'
54'
⚽Ervin Torresassist: Micah Burton
🔁Pablo Ruizout: Lucas Agustin·Sanabria Magole
58'
63'
🔁Przemyslaw Płachetaout: Žan Kolmanič
⚽Sergi Robertoassist: Marco Reus
66'
🔁Carlos Emiro Garces Torresout: Jakob Glesnes
72'
🔁Sergi Robertoout: Erik Thommy
72'
75'
🔁Ilie Sánchezout: Oleksandr Svatok
75'
🔁Micah Burtonout: Joseph Rosales
🔁Harbor Millerout: Lucas Felipe·Calegari
82'
86'
🔁Guilherme Biroout: Riley Thomas
86'
🔁Besard Sabovicout: Facundo Daniel Torres Perez
Marco Reus
87'
90+5'
Žan Kolmanič

Match stats — Los Angeles Galaxy vs Austin

56%Possession44%
18Shots12
10On target2
7Corners5
2.44xG1.27

Goals against chances

Los Angeles Galaxy4 from 2.44 xGmore than the chances were worth
Austin1 from 1.27 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Los Angeles Galaxy 4-3-3
  • 12J. MarcinkowskiG
  • 26Harbor MillerD
  • 15J. HaakD
  • 25C. GarcésD
  • 14J. NelsonD
  • 17P. RuizM
  • 18M. ReusM
  • 6Sergi RobertoM
  • 11H. LozanoF
  • 99KlaussF
  • 28J. PaintsilF
Substitutes
  • 27E. ThommyM
  • 22E. WynderM
  • 3J. AudeD
  • 7K. FuruhashiF
  • 5J. GlesnesD
  • 2CalegariD
  • 1N. MićovićG
  • 8L. SanabriaM
  • 21R. TaylorF
Coach: Greg Vanney
Austin 3-4-3
  • 12D. LasG
  • 3M. DeslerD
  • 6Ilie SánchezD
  • 29Guilherme BiroD
  • 32M. BurtonM
  • 14B. ŠabovićM
  • 38Ervin TorresM
  • 24Jorge AlastueyM
  • 77P. PłachetaF
  • 21C. RamirezF
  • 17J. GallagherF
Substitutes
  • 25Stefan DobrijevicF
  • 4B. Hines-IkeD
  • 23Ž. KolmaničD
  • 30J. RosalesM
  • 1B. StuverG
  • 5O. SvatokD
  • 2R. ThomasD
  • 11F. TorresF
  • 35M. ĐorđevićD
Coach: D. Arnaud

Form going into Los Angeles Galaxy vs Austin

Los Angeles Galaxy

Major League Soccer

  • D2-2away to Los Angeles FC26 October 2026
  • D2-2San Diego18 October 2026
  • W2-0Portland Timbers15 October 2026

Austin

Major League Soccer

  • L1-2Real Salt Lake29 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Sporting Kansas City25 October 2026
  • L1-2Vancouver Whitecaps18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Los Angeles Galaxy341111125057-744
14Austin34810164265-2334

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Los Angeles Galaxy vs Austin

  • 11 April 2026Austin 1–2 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
  • 17 July 2025Los Angeles Galaxy 1–2 AustinMajor League Soccer
  • 19 April 2025Austin 1–0 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
  • 5 February 2025Los Angeles Galaxy 1–1 AustinFriendlies Clubs
  • 6 October 2024Los Angeles Galaxy 2–1 AustinMajor League Soccer
  • 27 April 2024Austin 2–0 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer

The result against the call

Los Angeles Galaxy beat Austin 4–1. The model had made a win for Los Angeles Galaxy its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Klauss 10' for Los Angeles Galaxy, Hirving Lozano 38' for Los Angeles Galaxy, Robert Taylor 48' for Los Angeles Galaxy, Ervin Torres 54' for Austin, Sergi Roberto 66' for Los Angeles Galaxy. Sent off: Žan Kolmanič (Austin) 90+5'. On expected goals it finished 2.44–1.27.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Los Angeles Galaxy a 40.0% chance to finish in the top nine: 59.0% after a win, 23.7% after a draw, 17.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 59.0%, 19 points higher than before the match.

For Austin the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 96.3% going in: 87.5% after a win, 100.0% after a draw, 100.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 100.0%, 3.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.