23 October 2026, 17:45 UTC

Chaves vs Vizela Segunda Liga prediction & result

Estadio Municipal de Chaves, Chaves
Referee: Marcio Torres, Portugal
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Chaves 2-1 Vizela.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Chaves, 27% draw, 34% Vizela — fair odds of 2.56, 3.70 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Chaves at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Chaves4%Draw92%Vizela4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

27'
⚽Matías Lacava
Leandro Santos do Nascimento
43'
43'
Giovani Bamba
🔁Aílson Tavaresout: Pedro Pelágio
55'
🔁Gilberto Garcíaout: João Teixeira
56'
Andre Rodrigues
61'
🔁Aarón Romeroout: Roberto
69'
🔁Andre Rodriguesout: Marcos André Paulino Maia
69'
72'
🔁Angel Bastunovout: Neto
72'
🔁Yassin Fortuneout: Natanael Ntolla
Pedro Pelágio
77'
🔁Ricardo Alvesout: Junior Armando Mendes
80'
83'
Antonio Gomis Alemañ
⚽Junior Armando Mendes
85'
90+2'
⚽
90+5'

Match stats — Chaves vs Vizela

59%Possession41%
22Shots4
12On target2
6Corners0

Line-ups

Chaves 4-3-3
  • 1João ValidoG
  • 23Léo AlabáD
  • 34Ricardo AlvesD
  • 14N. AraújoD
  • 3Aarón RomeroD
  • 42Aílson TavaresM
  • 19Gilberto GarcíaM
  • 80mohamed fofanaM
  • 10André RodriguesF
  • 18Wilson TavaresF
  • 7R. EsajasD
Substitutes
  • 99GBF
  • 27J. MendesF
  • 17RobertoF
  • 9Marcos MaiaF
  • 16D. YearwoodM
  • 11Pedro PelágioM
  • 8João TeixeiraM
  • 2A. HerbertD
  • 33Tiago SimõesD
Coach: Vitor Martins
Vizela 4-2-3-1
  • 1Antonio GomisG
  • 77JójóD
  • 4J. RhynerD
  • 55A. HristovD
  • 26L. MinaD
  • 8A. BastunovM
  • 6Giovani BambaM
  • 95A. TraoréM
  • 24H. MörschelM
  • 36M. LacavaF
  • 23Y. FortunéF
Substitutes
  • 96A. AdamuF
  • 99A. CarterF
  • 70C. CañozalesF
  • 22Lucas AntañónF
  • 9Manu GarridoF
  • 31NetoM
  • 11N. ThioF
  • 13Luís RochaD
  • 92Pedro SouzaG
Coach: Ronald Ramírez

Form going into Chaves vs Vizela

Chaves

Segunda Liga

  • D1-1away to Lusitânia Lourosa11 October 2026
  • L0-4away to Farense4 October 2026

Vizela

Segunda Liga

  • L0-2Sporting CP B10 October 2026
  • D2-2away to FC Porto B14 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Chaves102261121-108
9Vizela104331211+115

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Chaves vs Vizela

  • 18 July 2026Vizela 1–0 ChavesFriendlies Clubs
  • 28 February 2026Vizela 3–2 ChavesSegunda Liga
  • 4 October 2025Chaves 1–0 VizelaSegunda Liga
  • 5 April 2025Chaves 1–2 VizelaSegunda Liga
  • 8 November 2024Vizela 0–1 ChavesSegunda Liga
  • 15 April 2024Vizela 0–1 ChavesPrimeira Liga

Leading scorers: Chaves and Vizela

Chaves

GoalsAssists

  • André Rodrigues10

Vizela

No player in Segunda Liga's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Chaves beat Vizela 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Chaves at 39%. The goals: Matías Lacava 27' for Vizela, Junior Armando Mendes 85' for Chaves, 90+5' for Chaves.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Chaves a 56.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 49.9% after a win, 59.2% after a draw, 63.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 49.9%, 6.9 points lower than before the match.

For Vizela the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 9.7% going in: 5.7% after a win, 8.9% after a draw, 12.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 12.5%, 2.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Segunda Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Chaves v Vizela has moved

First published on 9 Oct at 35% / 27% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 39% / 27% / 34%: the biggest move is Chaves's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Chaves win39%▲ +4
  2. Draw27%=
  3. Vizela win34%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.