23 October 2026, 16:30 UTC

SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor, Darmstadt
Referee: Timo Gansloweit, Germany
Full time0 – 0

Final score: SV Darmstadt 98 0-0 FC St. Pauli.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% SV Darmstadt 98, 27% draw, 42% FC St. Pauli — fair odds of 3.23, 3.70 and 2.38.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC St. Pauli at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

SV Darmstadt 984%Draw92%FC St. Pauli4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

7'
Arkadiusz Pyrka
26'
Abdoulie Ceesay
Raoul Petretta
26'
45'
🔁Abdoulie Ceesayout: Martijn Kaars
45'
🔁Arkadiusz Pyrkaout: Adam Dźwigała
45'
🔁Mathias Rasmussenout: Samuel Klein
Kai Klefisch
56'
🔁Fynn-Luca Lakenmacherout: Lee Ho-Jae
62'
🔁Marco Richterout: Nicolas Verkooijen
62'
65'
Adam Dźwigała
67'
🔁Youssoupha Niangout: Taichi Hara
83'
Eric Smith
84'
🔁Connor Metcalfeout: Branimir Hrgota
🔁Milan Smitout: Lance Duijvestijn
85'
William Mikelbrencis
90+2'
🔁William Mikelbrencisout: Christopher Lannert
90+4'

Match stats — SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli

36%Possession64%
12Shots18
0On target2
2Corners6
0.81xG1.91

Goals against chances

SV Darmstadt 980 from 0.81 xGless than the chances were worth
FC St. Pauli0 from 1.91 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

SV Darmstadt 98 4-4-2
  • 1M. SchuhenG
  • 25W. MikelbrencisD
  • 6P. PfeifferD
  • 49Y. LührsD
  • 18R. PetrettaD
  • 5M. RichterM
  • 17K. KlefischM
  • 16H. AkiyamaM
  • 7N. WeißhauptM
  • 19F. LakenmacherF
  • 36M. SmitF
Substitutes
  • 30A. BrunstG
  • 41L. DuijvestijnM
  • 11I. El KadiriF
  • 22L. KehlM
  • 3F. KleinhanslD
  • 28C. LannertD
  • 9Lee Ho-JaeF
  • 10N. VerkooijenM
  • 20A. VukotićD
Coach: F. Kohfeldt
FC St. Pauli 3-4-1-2
  • 1B. VollG
  • 4D. NemethD
  • 8E. SmithD
  • 21L. RitzkaD
  • 11A. PyrkaM
  • 20M. RasmussenM
  • 16J. FujitaM
  • 23L. OppieM
  • 24C. MetcalfeM
  • 7Y. NiangF
  • 9Abdoulie CeesayF
Substitutes
  • 6M. MathisenD
  • 22Samuel KleinM
  • 19M. KaarsF
  • 26R. JonesF
  • 10B. HrgotaF
  • 18T. HaraF
  • 25A. DźwigałaD
  • 15T. AndoD
  • 33D. MitovG
Coach: M. Rapp

Form going into SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli

SV Darmstadt 98

2. Bundesliga

  • L0-4away to Karlsruher SC18 October 2026
  • W3-1Energie Cottbus10 October 2026

FC St. Pauli

2. Bundesliga

  • D1-1away to Hannover 9617 October 2026
  • W2-0Karlsruher SC11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17SV Darmstadt 9811236921-129
9FC St. Pauli112631316-312

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli

  • 6 May 2023SV Darmstadt 98 0–3 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
  • 29 October 2022FC St. Pauli 1–1 SV Darmstadt 982. Bundesliga
  • 23 April 2022FC St. Pauli 1–2 SV Darmstadt 982. Bundesliga
  • 20 November 2021SV Darmstadt 98 4–0 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
  • 20 February 2021FC St. Pauli 3–2 SV Darmstadt 982. Bundesliga
  • 24 October 2020SV Darmstadt 98 2–2 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga

Leading scorers: SV Darmstadt 98 and FC St. Pauli

SV Darmstadt 98

No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

FC St. Pauli

GoalsAssists

  • Abdoulie Ceesay50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

SV Darmstadt 98 and FC St. Pauli drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for FC St. Pauli at 42% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.81–1.91.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave SV Darmstadt 98 a 31.6% chance to finish in the bottom two: 25.4% after a win, 31.7% after a draw, 35.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 31.7%.

For FC St. Pauli the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 5.9% going in: 7.3% after a win, 4.8% after a draw, 4.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 4.8%, 1.1 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 2. Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on SV Darmstadt 98 v FC St. Pauli has moved

First published on 9 Oct at 29% / 27% / 44% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 31% / 27% / 42%: the biggest move is SV Darmstadt 98's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. SV Darmstadt 98 win31%▲ +2
  2. Draw27%=
  3. FC St. Pauli win42%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.