24 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Farense vs Penafiel Segunda Liga prediction & result

Faro
Referee: Anzhony Rodrigues, Portugal
Full time1 – 4

Final score: Farense 1-4 Penafiel.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Farense, 27% draw, 28% Penafiel — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Farense at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Farense0%Draw1%Penafiel99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

4'
⚽Ricardo Schutteassist: João Pinto
6'
Pedro Sá
Nelson Oliveira
8'
11'
⚽Ricardo Schutte
14'
⚽Juanda Fuentes
•Joao·Resende
38'
Claudio Falcão
45+3'
46'
🔁Juanda Fuentesout: francisco varela
🔁Claudio Falcãoout: Joseph N'Duquidi
46'
🔁Nelson Oliveiraout: Bruno Miguel Vicente dos Santos
46'
🔁Joao·Resendeout: Gabriel Barbosa
46'
Sarpreet Singh
55'
🔁toni herreroout: Derick Poloni
62'
🔁Sarpreet Singhout: Miguel menino
62'
⚽André Candeias
65'
67'
🔁Ricardo Schutteout: Antonio David Álvarez Rey
Joseph N'Duquidi
78'
83'
🔁Jaime Sánchezout: Joao Miguel
83'
🔁Max Svenssonout: Claudio Mendes
87'
⚽Claudio Mendes
90+1'
🔁João Pintoout: Tomás Teixeira
Alex Pinto
90+2'

Match stats — Farense vs Penafiel

61%Possession39%
14Shots14
7On target5
8Corners1

Line-ups

Farense 4-3-3
  • 97F. BuntićG
  • 78Alex PintoD
  • 44N. ZolotićD
  • 37Gonçalo SilvaD
  • 22Toni HerreroD
  • 27Mattheus OliveiraM
  • 29Cláudio FalcãoM
  • 10S. SinghM
  • 17André CandeiasF
  • 11Nélson OliveiraF
  • 7João ResendeF
Substitutes
  • 18Bruno SantosF
  • 9Gabriel BarbosaF
  • 88Rafael TeixeiraM
  • 15J. Diazongua NfiniguiM
  • 8Miguel MeninoM
  • 43Dário MirandaD
  • 6Derick PoloniD
  • 5Rodrigo BorgesD
  • 3Lucas D'AgrellaD
Coach: José Faria
Penafiel 3-4-3
  • 1Miguel OliveiraG
  • 5Jaime SánchezD
  • 6Adrián PicaD
  • 2Iano ImbeneD
  • 33Ricardo SchutteF
  • 21Pedro SáM
  • 3Cláudio SilvaD
  • 7Douglas BorelD
  • 17João PintoF
  • 9Max SvenssonF
  • 11J. FuentesF
Substitutes
  • 99ClaudioF
  • 4João MiguelD
  • 14Jorge MeréD
  • 64Tiago SampaioD
  • 38M. RamonM
  • 50Francisco VarelaM
  • 79Tomás Teixeira
  • 85Carlinhos AugustoM
  • 10DavoF
Coach: José Manuel Aira

Form going into Farense vs Penafiel

Farense

Segunda Liga

  • W2-1Feirense11 October 2026
  • W4-0Chaves4 October 2026

Penafiel

Segunda Liga

  • L1-2AVS9 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Felgueiras 193212 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Farense104331714+315
1Penafiel107122210+1222

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Farense vs Penafiel

  • 7 March 2026Penafiel 1–1 FarenseSegunda Liga
  • 26 October 2025Farense 0–0 PenafielSegunda Liga
  • 22 April 2023Farense 2–1 PenafielSegunda Liga
  • 5 November 2022Penafiel 0–2 FarenseSegunda Liga
  • 19 March 2022Penafiel 1–3 FarenseSegunda Liga
  • 1 November 2021Farense 2–2 PenafielSegunda Liga

Leading scorers: Farense and Penafiel

Farense

GoalsAssists

  • Gonçalo Silva10
  • S. Singh10

Penafiel

No player in Segunda Liga's leading scorers — 22 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Penafiel won 4–1 at Farense. The model had leaned towards a win for Farense at 45% and given a win for Penafiel 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Ricardo Schutte 4' for Penafiel, Ricardo Schutte 11' for Penafiel, Juanda Fuentes 14' for Penafiel, André Candeias 65' for Farense, Claudio Mendes 87' for Penafiel. Sent off: Joseph N'Duquidi (Farense) 78'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Farense a 45.0% chance to finish in the top three: 50.7% after a win, 41.6% after a draw, 36.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 36.8%, 8.2 points lower than before the match.

For Penafiel the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 41.2% going in: 49.4% after a win, 40.2% after a draw, 36.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 49.4%, 8.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Segunda Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.