20 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Exeter City vs Crewe League Two prediction & result

St James Park, Exeter
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Exeter City 2-0 Crewe.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Exeter City, 29% draw, 31% Crewe — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Exeter City at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Exeter City96%Draw4%Crewe0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Anthony Scully (pen)
21'
🔁Jake Doyle Hayesout: Reece Cole
45'
45'
🔁Kyle Ureout: Reece Hutchinson
45'
🔁Joe Whiteout: Charlie McNeill
57'
Charlie McNeill
🔁Taylor Perryout: Harry Kite
58'
60'
Lee Bell
🔁Anthony Scullyout: Josh Gordon
66'
🔁Sonny Coxout: Vincent Harper
79'
🔁George Birchout: Ethan Sutherland
79'
79'
🔁Jordan Gibsonout: Adrien thibaut
Jack Fitzwater
81'
Matthew James Taylor
85'
86'
🔁Owen luntout: Calum·Agius
⚽Reece Cole
90+4'

Match stats — Exeter City vs Crewe

46%Possession54%
15Shots16
5On target4
3Corners6
1.91xG0.7

Goals against chances

Exeter City2 from 1.91 xGabout what the chances were worth
Crewe0 from 0.70 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Exeter City 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. BycroftG
  • 2L. SamuelD
  • 6J. TaylorD
  • 5J. FitzwaterD
  • 3L. WoodhouseD
  • 31J. Doyle-HayesM
  • 16C. CumminsM
  • 20George BirchM
  • 8T. PerryM
  • 25A. ScullyM
  • 19S. CoxF
Substitutes
  • 23Ethan SutherlandD
  • 12R. ColeM
  • 10J. GordonF
  • 24V. HarperD
  • 40E. JamesD
  • 14H. KiteM
  • 22Frankie PhillipsG
Coach: M. Taylor
Crewe 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. BoothG
  • 2L. BillingtonD
  • 6L. OffordD
  • 12J. StephensonD
  • 4Kyle UreD
  • 19O. LuntM
  • 10J. WhiteM
  • 11J. TabinerM
  • 17M. HolíčekM
  • 14J. GibsonM
  • 9J. MarchF
Substitutes
  • 3R. HutchinsonD
  • 30Stan DanceyD
  • 20Calum AgiusF
  • 13I. LawlorG
  • 23C. McNeillF
  • 32L. MooreM
  • 29A. ThibautF
Coach: Lee Bell

Form going into Exeter City vs Crewe

Exeter City

League Two

  • D0-0away to Colchester17 October 2026

Crewe

League Two

  • W3-2Rochdale17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Exeter City15645129+322
5Crewe155821919023

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Exeter City vs Crewe

  • 3 March 2020Exeter City 1–1 CreweLeague Two
  • 5 October 2019Crewe 1–1 Exeter CityLeague Two
  • 23 February 2019Crewe 1–2 Exeter CityLeague Two
  • 15 December 2018Exeter City 1–0 CreweLeague Two
  • 20 February 2018Crewe 1–2 Exeter CityLeague Two

Leading scorers: Exeter City and Crewe

Exeter City

No player in League Two's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.

Crewe

GoalsAssists

  • J. Gibson52

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Exeter City beat Crewe 2–0. The model had made a win for Exeter City its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Anthony Scully (penalty) 21' for Exeter City, Reece Cole 90+4' for Exeter City. On expected goals it finished 1.91–0.70.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Exeter City a 12.7% chance to finish in the top three: 15.4% after a win, 10.9% after a draw, 9.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 15.4%, 2.7 points higher than before the match.

For Crewe the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 34.2% going in: 39.9% after a win, 33.0% after a draw, 30.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 30.3%, 3.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.