Cherno More Varna vs Dunav Ruse First League prediction & result
Final score: Cherno More Varna 3-1 Dunav Ruse.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Cherno More Varna, 19% draw, 42% Dunav Ruse — fair odds of 2.56, 5.26 and 2.38.
Most likely scoreline: 2-3.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Dunav Ruse at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 81Kristian TomovG
- 50Ertan TombakD
- 3Zhivko AtanasovD
- 5Luciano SquadroneD
- 37Ventsislav KerchevD
- 71Vasil PanayotovM
- 24David TelesM
- 7Miguel BarandasF
- 10Celso SidneyF
- 11Mohamed AchiM
- 19Georgi LazarovF
- 26João BandaroD
- 29Ivan TasevM
- 99Idris Bunas
- 9Jorge PadillaF
- 18Petar AndreevM
- 31Damyan HristovG
- 13Emanuil NyagolovD
- 93Georgi VentsislavovD
- 22Nikolay Petrov KostadinovM
- 33Georgi KitanovG
- 39Andre AlvesD
- 5Kyriakos AntoniouM
- 22Stojan PredevD
- 2Mario Ivanov DilchovskiD
- 14Radoslav ApostolovM
- 44Vladan VidakovićM
- 24Stefan GavrilovM
- 11Denislav MinchevF
- 10Kristiyan BachevM
- 9Alexander Valino NavasalF
- 51Ilker BudinovD
- 18Ibrahim KeitaF
- 4Jose CabarcasD
- 69Plamen PepelyashevG
- 6Stanislav YovkovD
- 19Stefan StefanovM
- 77Aleksandar SimeonovF
Form going into Cherno More Varna vs Dunav Ruse
Cherno More Varna
All competitions we cover
- L1-4away to CSKA 194814 August 2026
- L2-3Ludogorets9 August 2026
- L0-1away to Botev Plovdiv1 August 2026
- L0-3Spartak Varna26 July 2026
- D1-1away to Botev Vratsa19 July 2026
Dunav Ruse
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv16 August 2026
- L0-2Arda Kardzhali8 August 2026
- L1-2away to CSKA Sofia2 August 2026
- L0-2Ludogorets27 July 2026
- L1-2away to Levski Sofia17 July 2026
What these results say
- Cherno More Varna did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Cherno More Varna conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dunav Ruse conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dunav Ruse failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Cherno More Varna | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 13 |
| 10 | Dunav Ruse | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cherno More Varna vs Dunav Ruse
- 11 July 2026Cherno More Varna 1–1 Dunav RuseFriendlies Clubs
- 1 February 2025Cherno More Varna 2–1 Dunav RuseFriendlies Clubs
- 10 July 2024Cherno More Varna 4–0 Dunav RuseFriendlies Clubs
- 7 February 2024Cherno More Varna 0–0 Dunav RuseFriendlies Clubs
- 5 July 2023Dunav Ruse 2–1 Cherno More VarnaFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Cherno More Varna and Dunav Ruse
Cherno More Varna
No player in First League's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Dunav Ruse
GoalsAssists
- I. Budinov11
- Andre Alves10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Cherno More Varna beat Dunav Ruse 3–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Dunav Ruse at 42% and given a win for Cherno More Varna 39%. The goals: David Teles 55' for Cherno More Varna, Ibrahim Keita 70' for Dunav Ruse, Petar Andreev 90+4' for Cherno More Varna, Luciano Squadrone 90+2' for Cherno More Varna.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.