21 August 2026, 18:00 UTC

Rudes vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb HNL prediction & result

SC Rudes, Zagreb
Full time4 – 1

Final score: Rudes 4-1 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb.

Before kick-off the model made it 26% Rudes, 22% draw, 52% NK Lokomotiva Zagreb — fair odds of 3.85, 4.55 and 1.92. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at 52% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Rudes99%Draw1%NK Lokomotiva Zagreb0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
Leon Belcar
23'
Leon Belcar
23'
Leon Belcar
⚽N. Skokoassist: V. Celjak
28'
•Noa Skoko
29'
36'
🔁N. Djurkovicout: M. Lorber
40'
⚽D. Vukovicassist: M. Subotic
🔁J. Blagaicout: J. Bralic
46'
⚽Xaviassist: J. Poldrugac
53'
⚽J. Bralicassist: L. Ilecic
58'
⚽I. Djoricassist: J. Poldrugac
65'
🔁J. Poldrugacout: V. Seitz
66'
66'
🔁D. Thaqiout: Kayke
66'
🔁J. Vasiljout: M. Antunovic
72'
🔁M. Vesovicout: P. Smiljanic
🔁L. Ilecicout: L. Popovic
74'
🔁N. Skokoout: A. Spekuljuk
81'
🔁Xaviout: K. Lovric
81'
Vid Seitz
82'
Josip Bralic
90+1'

Match stats — Rudes vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

58%Possession42%
14Shots7
6On target1
3Corners5
1.69xG1.03

Goals against chances

Rudes4 from 1.69 xGmore than the chances were worth
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1 from 1.03 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Rudes 4-3-1-2
  • 95L. RogicG
  • 14B. Unusic
  • 4V. CeljakD
  • 5M. StolnikD
  • 2T. KolegaD
  • 28XaviM
  • 15N. SkokoM
  • 24I. DjoricM
  • 20J. BlagaicM
  • 11J. PoldrugacF
  • 7L. IlecicF
Substitutes
  • 1F. HoljevacG
  • 32S. DuvnjakG
  • 23A. UdovicicD
  • 8L. PopovicM
  • 13J. RadmanM
  • 10V. SeitzM
  • 25A. SpekuljukF
  • 34K. LovricF
  • 35J. BralicF
Coach: Alen Peternac
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 4-2-3-1
  • 12J. PosavecG
  • 23M. VesovicD
  • 27N. GodecD
  • 4A. TriantafyllouD
  • 20K. CabrajicD
  • 9L. BelcarM
  • 10M. SuboticM
  • 7D. VukovicM
  • 29J. VasiljM
  • 15D. ThaqiM
  • 28N. DjurkovicF
Substitutes
  • 32L. SavatovicG
  • 5T. JukicD
  • 25P. SmiljanicM
  • 14M. LorberM
  • 6F. FetaiM
  • 30D. ReicM
  • 26D. Morina
  • 16KaykeF
  • 24M. MaricF
Coach: Nikica Jelavic

Form going into Rudes vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

Rudes

  • L0-4away to Dinamo Zagreb14 August 2026

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

  • L0-1away to NK Osijek15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

HNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Rudes7106822-143
7NK Lokomotiva Zagreb7214913-47

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rudes vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

  • 18 May 2024Rudes 3–3 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
  • 9 March 2024NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3–0 RudesHNL
  • 3 December 2023Rudes 0–0 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
  • 15 September 2023NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–0 RudesHNL
  • 20 April 2019Rudes 1–2 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
  • 15 February 2019NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0–0 RudesHNL

Leading scorers: Rudes and NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

Rudes

  • L. Ilečić2 goals2 assists

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

  • D. Vuković2 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.