20 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Gillingham vs Port Vale League Two prediction & result

Priestfield Stadium, Gillingham
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Gillingham 1-1 Port Vale.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Gillingham, 28% draw, 36% Port Vale — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Gillingham at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Gillingham4%Draw92%Port Vale4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Ronan Chapman Hale (pen)
42'
45'
🔁George Cardinal Joseph·Hallout: Kyle Dempsey
45'
🔁Onel Hernándezout: Oliver Lynch
45'
🔁Max Watters out: Keyrol Alexis Figueroa Norales
56'
Jasper·Moon
66'
🔁Kyle Johnout: Jaheim·Headley
66'
⚽Keyrol Alexis Figueroa Norales
🔁Ethan·Colemanout: Harry Waldock
70'
🔁Ronan Chapman Haleout: Garath McCleary
74'
Conor McManus
79'
🔁Conor McManusout: Michael Luxton
84'
🔁Tom Eavesout: S. Kendall
84'
Jack Daley
85'
90'
🔁Ben Garrityout: Rhys Walters

Match stats — Gillingham vs Port Vale

41%Possession59%
9Shots11
3On target3
9Corners4
1.7xG0.88

Goals against chances

Gillingham1 from 1.70 xGless than the chances were worth
Port Vale1 from 0.88 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Gillingham 3-4-3
  • 1O. WrightG
  • 5A. SmithD
  • 19O. BecklesD
  • 20J. DaleyD
  • 16J. BrophyM
  • 6E. ColemanM
  • 8A. LittleM
  • 3Conor McManusM
  • 22N. FreemanF
  • 10Ronan HaleF
  • 39T. EavesF
Substitutes
  • 30S. BoothF
  • 40R. LuthraG
  • 12G. McClearyM
  • 24H. WaldockM
  • 26L. DobbsD
  • 18S. KendallM
  • 27M. LuxtonM
Coach: G. Ainsworth
Port Vale 3-5-2
  • 20M. MarošiG
  • 25C. HumphreysD
  • 4J. MoonD
  • 5C. HallD
  • 6J. Lawrence-GabrielM
  • 8B. GarrityM
  • 7G. ByersM
  • 33G. HallM
  • 2K. JohnM
  • 36M. WattersF
  • 11O. HernándezF
Substitutes
  • 10K. DempseyM
  • 3J. HeadleyD
  • 22L. MontsmaD
  • 1J. SmithG
  • 38R. WaltersM
  • 14O. LynchF
  • 24K. FigueroaF
Coach: J. Brady

Form going into Gillingham vs Port Vale

Gillingham

League Two

  • L1-3away to Accrington Stanley17 October 2026

Port Vale

League Two

  • W1-0Chesterfield17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Gillingham155552021-120
17Port Vale135351416-218

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Gillingham vs Port Vale

  • 3 May 2025Port Vale 0–1 GillinghamLeague Two
  • 9 November 2024Gillingham 1–0 Port ValeLeague Two
  • 11 February 2017Gillingham 1–1 Port ValeLeague One
  • 17 September 2016Port Vale 2–1 GillinghamLeague One
  • 16 April 2016Gillingham 0–2 Port ValeLeague One

Leading scorers: Gillingham and Port Vale

Gillingham

GoalsAssists

  • Ronan Hale61

Port Vale

No player in League Two's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Gillingham and Port Vale drew 1–1. The goals: Ronan Chapman Hale (penalty) 42' for Gillingham, Keyrol Alexis Figueroa Norales 66' for Port Vale. On expected goals it finished 1.70–0.88.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Port Vale a 9.4% chance to finish in the top three: 11.6% after a win, 8.6% after a draw, 7.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 8.6%, 0.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Gillingham v Port Vale has moved

First published on 6 Oct at 34% / 30% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 36% / 28% / 36%: the biggest move is Gillingham's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Gillingham win36%▲ +2
  2. Draw28%▼ −2
  3. Port Vale win36%=

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.