Regular Season - 16 · 21 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Grimsby vs Rotherham League Two prediction

Blundell Park, Cleethorpes

Our model says: Grimsby 2–1 Rotherham

The model makes it 63% Grimsby, 20% draw, 17% Rotherham — fair odds of 1.59, 5.00 and 5.88.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).

Expected goals: Grimsby 2.62, Rotherham 1.14.

Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.

One-sided: Grimsby are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Grimsby's rating is built from 63 League Two matches and Rotherham's from 14, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,288 matches.

Key facts

  • Grimsby are 3rd on 23 points from 15 games; Rotherham are 23rd on 12 points from 14 games — League Two.
  • Grimsby are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 4-1 win away to Swindon Town.
  • Rotherham have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Swindon Town.
  • Last 2 meetings: Rotherham 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 30 July 2024, ended Grimsby 2–2 Rotherham.

More League Two predictions

All League Two predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Grimsby vs Rotherham

64%
Both teams to score
73%
Over 2.5 goals
27%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Grimsby win Draw Rotherham win
  1. 2–19%
  2. 3–18%
  3. 2–08%
  4. 1–17%
  5. 3–07%
  6. 1–06%
  7. 4–15%

Scores read Grimsby first; the other scorelines share the remaining 50%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Grimsby at 63%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Grimsby vs Rotherham

Grimsby

League Two

  • W4-1away to Swindon Town14 November 2026
  • W5-2York31 October 2026
  • W4-1away to Gillingham24 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Rochdale20 October 2026
  • L0-2Northampton17 October 2026

Rotherham

League Two

  • L1-2away to Swindon Town31 October 2026
  • D3-3Shrewsbury24 October 2026
  • D2-2Newport County20 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Fleetwood Town17 October 2026
  • L1-4Gillingham10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Grimsby conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Grimsby scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Grimsby had three goals or more.
  • Rotherham did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Rotherham conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Rotherham scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Grimsby156542819+923
23Rotherham142661825-712

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Grimsby

Chance to finish in the top three · 42% today

Win 44%
Draw 36%
Defeat 33%

Rotherham

Chance to finish in the bottom two · 37% today

Win 27%
Draw 34%
Defeat 39%

From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Grimsby vs Rotherham

  • 30 July 2024Grimsby 2–2 RotherhamFriendlies Clubs
  • 24 July 2021Grimsby 0–1 RotherhamFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Grimsby and Rotherham

Grimsby

No player in League Two's leading scorers — 28 league goals as a side.

Rotherham

GoalsAssists

  • P. Mullin80

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Grimsby a 12.1% chance of the title and Rotherham 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Grimsby v Rotherham has moved

First published on 7 Nov at 61% / 21% / 18% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 63% / 20% / 17%: the biggest move is Grimsby's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Grimsby win63%▲ +2
  2. Draw20%▼ −1
  3. Rotherham win17%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Grimsby Rotherham
0.65 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.48
1.96 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 2.75
2.62 Model expected goals (this match) 1.14

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Grimsby the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.62 expected goals for Grimsby against 1.14 for Rotherham. Grimsby's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.96 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/2.75 for Rotherham.

Grimsby carry a model rating of 6.31 against 5.99 for Rotherham.

How the model reaches 63% for Grimsby to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Grimsby to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Grimsby's ratings add 10 points and Rotherham's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 63%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage41%+5
  3. Both sides at this match's level43%+2
  4. Grimsby's ratings53%+10
  5. Rotherham's ratings63%+10

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

GrimsbyRotherham
15Matches14
6W 5D 4LRecord2W 6D 6L
28 1.9 per gameGoals scored18 1.3 per game
19 1.3 per gameGoals conceded25 1.8 per game
4 of 15Clean sheets1 of 14
3 of 15Failed to score3 of 14
3 of 4Penalties scored4 of 5
26 1.7 per gameYellow cards32 2.3 per game
1Red cards4
4-1-4-1 12×Usual shape3-4-2-1 5×

Grimsby at home · Rotherham away

7Played7
4W 1D 2LRecord1W 1D 5L
13–8Goals for – against5–10
3 of 7Clean sheets1 of 7

League matches only, League Two, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All League Two matches this season: Grimsby 15, Rotherham 14.

Grimsby scored 237464
Rotherham conceded 144645

Grimsby score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Rotherham have let in 4 there.

Rotherham scored 443124
Grimsby conceded 335523

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Grimsby

  • at Crewe28 Nov · League Twowin 42%
  • vs Colchester1 Dec · League Twowin 53%
  • at Chesterfield12 Dec · League Twowin 36%
  • vs Barnet19 Dec · League Twowin 44%
  • at Salford City26 Dec · League Twowin 33%

Rotherham

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.