Chico vs Atletico Nacional Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Chico 1-4 Atletico Nacional.
Before kick-off the model made it 20% Chico, 27% draw, 53% Atletico Nacional — fair odds of 5.00, 3.70 and 1.89.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Atletico Nacional at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Chico vs Atletico Nacional
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1D. AgudeloG
- 24C. MosqueraD
- 5J. AlomíaD
- 4J. MenaD
- 14C. BlancoD
- 6J. DíazM
- 17E. SarriaM
- 8S. SalazarM
- 21J. PimentelM
- 16S. MeraM
- 22Alejandro MayaF
- 20sebastian viverosM
- 11D. RamírezM
- 2D. PolancoD
- 12B. ZapataG
- 19J. Pimentel Betancourt
- 15S. NavarroD
- 29Luis CarabalíF
- 9I. CamargoF
- 10Y. CabreraM
- 34F. ArmaniG
- 31X. RiosD
- 3N. ParraD
- 4C. HaydarD
- 20M. CascoD
- 22E. CabreraM
- 14Elkin RiveroM
- 80J. ZapataM
- 19J. RengifoF
- 32Emmanuel BenítezF
- 10E. CardonaF
- 26F. MarinD
- 25L. MarquinezG
- 36Jose EscorciaF
- 38Jhan Carlos Moreno CórdobaD
- 30K. ParraM
- 13N. RodríguezF
- 29A. SarmientoF
- 33S. VelásquezM
- 39Edwin Fernelis Echeverría MuñozF
Form going into Chico vs Atletico Nacional
Chico
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Cucuta11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Deportes Tolima3 October 2026
- W3-0Deportivo Pasto25 September 2026
Atletico Nacional
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Deportes Tolima8 October 2026
- W3-1Junior1 October 2026
- D1-1Millonarios25 September 2026
- L0-2away to Llaneros21 September 2026
What these results say
- Atletico Nacional failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Atletico Nacional conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Atletico Nacional had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Chico | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 29 | -14 | 20 |
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 19 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 38 | 18 | +20 | 40 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Chico vs Atletico Nacional
- 17 January 2026Atletico Nacional 4–0 ChicoPrimera A
- 6 October 2025Chico 1–1 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
- 16 April 2025Atletico Nacional 4–1 ChicoPrimera A
- 29 September 2024Atletico Nacional 6–2 ChicoPrimera A
- 17 March 2024Chico 2–1 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
- 22 October 2023Chico 1–3 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
Leading scorers: Chico and Atletico Nacional
Chico
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
Atletico Nacional
GoalsAssists
- A. Morelos166
- A. Sarmiento117
- E. Cardona104
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Atletico Nacional won 4–1 at Chico. The model had made a win for Atletico Nacional its most likely outcome, at 53%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Emmanuel Benítez 16' for Atletico Nacional, Edwin Cardona 50' for Atletico Nacional, Juan Diaz (penalty) 83' for Chico, Andrés Sarmiento 85' for Atletico Nacional, Andrés Sarmiento 90+1' for Atletico Nacional. On expected goals it finished 1.27–1.23.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Chico a 28.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 8.6% after a win, 24.3% after a draw, 34.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 34.7%, 6.3 points higher than before the match.
For Atletico Nacional the question was the chance to finish top of the Clausura, 46.6% going in: 54.5% after a win, 37.6% after a draw, 28.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 54.5%, 7.9 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Chico v Atletico Nacional has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 23% / 28% / 49% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 20% / 27% / 53%: the biggest move is Atletico Nacional's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Chico win20%▼ −3
- Draw27%▼ −1
- Atletico Nacional win53%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.