Millonarios vs Jaguares Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Millonarios 4-1 Jaguares.
Before kick-off the model made it 63% Millonarios, 22% draw, 15% Jaguares — fair odds of 1.59, 4.55 and 6.67.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Colombian Primera A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Millonarios at 63%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Millonarios vs Jaguares
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. BurraiG
- 3M. Diaz SamuelD
- 4S. BarreiroD
- 6S. MosqueraD
- 22Sebastián Valencia IsazaD
- 10D. RuizM
- 28S. VegaM
- 14D. SilvaM
- 7J. CuadradoM
- 23L. CastroF
- 11A. EstupiñánF
- 20D. BangueroD
- 27R. ContrerasF
- 15Yeiner Matias Romero PinoM
- 55LeonaiM
- 30S. del CastilloM
- 26A. LlinásD
- 24J. AnguloF
- 12J. AguirreG
- 12F. MosqueraG
- 4J. FrancoD
- 6J. LoveraD
- 29C. HenaoD
- 18L. JiménezD
- 7W. De La RosaM
- 5R. ColpaM
- 21R. BustamanteM
- 9J. MejiaM
- 11A. RenteríaF
- 10C. ÁlvarezF
- 2A. AlfonsoM
- 16E. BeltránF
- 24S. CubidesF
- 17D. LópezF
- 3J. MalagónD
- 1D. MartínezG
- 30R. PerezM
- 32Jose YanezM
- 28D. ZuluagaM
Form going into Millonarios vs Jaguares
Millonarios
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Fortaleza FC9 October 2026
- D2-2away to Independiente Medellin30 September 2026
- D1-1away to Atletico Nacional25 September 2026
Jaguares
All competitions we cover
- W3-2Deportes Tolima11 October 2026
- L0-2away to Águilas Doradas3 October 2026
- L1-2Alianza Valledupar27 September 2026
- L1-2away to Independiente Medellin22 September 2026
What these results say
- Jaguares conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Jaguares failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Jaguares scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Millonarios | 19 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 27 | 16 | +11 | 30 |
| 19 | Jaguares | 19 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 17 | 37 | -20 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Millonarios vs Jaguares
- 2 April 2026Jaguares 1–0 MillonariosPrimera A
- 26 September 2024Millonarios 0–0 JaguaresPrimera A
- 11 March 2024Jaguares 2–1 MillonariosPrimera A
- 13 August 2023Jaguares 2–0 MillonariosPrimera A
- 19 February 2023Millonarios 2–1 JaguaresPrimera A
- 21 August 2022Millonarios 2–0 JaguaresPrimera A
Leading scorers: Millonarios and Jaguares
Millonarios
GoalsAssists
- A. Estupiñán194
- L. Castro126
- R. Contreras101
Jaguares
GoalsAssists
- A. Rentería123
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Millonarios beat Jaguares 4–1. The model had made a win for Millonarios its most likely outcome, at 63%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Andrey Estupinan 34' for Millonarios, Leonardo Castro 40' for Millonarios, Cristian Alvarez 45+1' for Jaguares, Andrey Estupinan 63' for Millonarios, Daniel Felipe Ruiz Rivera 70' for Millonarios. On expected goals it finished 2.88–0.23.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Millonarios a 19.5% chance to finish in the top four: 23.6% after a win, 8.8% after a draw, 4.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 23.6%, 4.1 points higher than before the match.
For Jaguares the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 49.9% going in: 22.6% after a win, 42.8% after a draw, 55.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 55.4%, 5.5 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Millonarios v Jaguares has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 56% / 26% / 18% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 63% / 22% / 15%: the biggest move is Millonarios's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- Millonarios win63%▲ +7
- Draw22%▼ −4
- Jaguares win15%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.