17 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

AS Roma vs Genoa Serie A prediction & result

Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Referee: Rosario Abisso, Italy
Full time2 – 0

Final score: AS Roma 2-0 Genoa.

Before kick-off the model made it 68% AS Roma, 21% draw, 11% Genoa — fair odds of 1.47, 4.76 and 9.09.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

AS Roma at 68%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

AS Roma99%Draw1%Genoa0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Matias Soule
43'
⚽Santiago Thomas Castro
50'
51'
Johan Vásquez
🔁Rodrigo Moraout: Lorenzo Pellegrini
63'
🔁Konstantinos Koulierakisout: Mario Hermoso
63'
65'
🔁Stephan El Shaarawyout: Vítor Manuel Carvalho Oliveira
65'
Leo Østigård
⚽Emanuele Lulli
68'
Niccolò Pisilli
76'
🔁Emanuele Lulliout: Wesley Vinícius França Lima
78'
81'
Mikael Ellertsson
83'
🔁Junior Messiasout: Robinho Junior
83'
🔁Morten Frendrupout: Alexsandro Amorim de Freitas Filho
🔁Devyne Renschout: Daniele Ghilardi
88'
🔁Niccolò Pisilliout: Alessandro Di Nunzio
88'

Match stats — AS Roma vs Genoa

66%Possession34%
15Shots9
5On target1
5Corners3
1.37xG0.49

Goals against chances

AS Roma2 from 1.37 xGmore than the chances were worth
Genoa0 from 0.49 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

AS Roma 3-4-2-1
  • 95P. GolliniG
  • 26L. BalerdiD
  • 5E. NdickaD
  • 3K. KoulierakisD
  • 77E. LulliM
  • 15M. de RoonM
  • 61N. PisilliM
  • 2D. RenschM
  • 18M. SouléM
  • 86Rodrigo MoraM
  • 9S. CastroF
Substitutes
  • 78Mandjou CamaraF
  • 68A. ArenaF
  • 70G. De MarziG
  • 87D. GhilardiD
  • 22HermosoD
  • 23G. ManciniD
  • 20N. MolinaD
  • 7L. PellegriniM
  • 32D. VásquezG
Coach: G. Gasperini
Genoa 3-4-2-1
  • 1J. BijlowG
  • 27A. MarcandalliD
  • 5L. ØstigårdD
  • 22J. VásquezD
  • 77M. EllertssonM
  • 71S. WiafeM
  • 32M. FrendrupM
  • 31D. PuczkaM
  • 10Junior MessiasM
  • 92S. El ShaarawyM
  • 18M. OsmajićF
Substitutes
  • 8T. BaldanziM
  • 16C. DramehD
  • 2M. MitajD
  • 20S. SabelliD
  • 39D. SommarivaG
  • 99F. StolzG
  • 25H. TraorèM
  • 85M. VazD
  • 9VítinhaF
Coach: D. De Rossi

Form going into AS Roma vs Genoa

AS Roma

All competitions we cover

  • L3-4Real Madrid14 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Como11 October 2026
  • D2-2Inter19 September 2026
  • W2-0away to Torino14 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Fenerbahçe10 September 2026

Genoa

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1Fiorentina10 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Parma20 September 2026
  • D1-1Frosinone12 September 2026
  • L1-4Como4 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Lazio30 August 2026

What these results say

  • AS Roma failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • AS Roma scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Genoa conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Genoa failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Genoa scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3AS Roma118303110+2127
13Genoa114161116-513

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: AS Roma vs Genoa

  • 8 March 2026Genoa 2–1 AS RomaSerie A
  • 29 December 2025AS Roma 3–1 GenoaSerie A
  • 17 January 2025AS Roma 3–1 GenoaSerie A
  • 15 September 2024Genoa 1–1 AS RomaSerie A
  • 19 May 2024AS Roma 1–0 GenoaSerie A
  • 28 September 2023Genoa 4–1 AS RomaSerie A

The full AS Roma vs Genoa record →

Leading scorers: AS Roma and Genoa

AS Roma

GoalsAssists

  • D. Malen82
  • Rodrigo Mora40

Genoa

GoalsAssists

  • M. Osmajić41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

AS Roma beat Genoa 2–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for AS Roma at 68%. The goals: Santiago Thomas Castro 50' for AS Roma, Emanuele Lulli 68' for AS Roma. On expected goals it finished 1.37–0.49.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave AS Roma a 39.8% chance to win the league: 41.7% after a win, 33.5% after a draw, 31.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 41.7%, 1.9 points higher than before the match.

For Genoa the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 29.6% going in: 19.1% after a win, 27.9% after a draw, 30.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 30.9%, 1.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on AS Roma v Genoa has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 62% / 23% / 15% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 68% / 21% / 11%: the biggest move is AS Roma's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. AS Roma win68%▲ +6
  2. Draw21%▼ −2
  3. Genoa win11%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.