23 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Clermont Foot vs Guingamp Ligue 2 prediction & result

Stade Gabriel Montpied, Clermont-Ferrand
Referee: Karim Abed, France
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Clermont Foot 0-2 Guingamp.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Clermont Foot, 28% draw, 29% Guingamp — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Clermont Foot at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Clermont Foot0%Draw1%Guingamp99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

David Guion
19'
24'
⚽Samir Ben Brahimassist: Stanislas Kielt
29'
⚽Samir Ben Brahimassist: Amine Hemia
31'
Jérémie Matumona Makanga
35'
Tom Ducrocq
🔁Allan Ackraout: Salomon Sambia
61'
🔁Enzo Canteroout: Adrien Hunou
61'
68'
🔁Samir Ben Brahimout: Florent Sanchez Da Silva
🔁Christ Okouout: Luís Semedo
70'
74'
🔁Teddy Andami Averlantout: Tanguy Ahile
75'
🔁Tom Ducrocqout: Amadou Samoura
🔁Vital N'Simbaout: El Hadj Koné
81'
🔁Ibrahim Moriba Coulibalyout: Ousmane Diop
81'
81'
🔁Stanislas Kieltout: Ewan Aucan
82'
🔁Jérémie Matumona Makangaout: Tuomas Ollila

Match stats — Clermont Foot vs Guingamp

64%Possession36%
9Shots11
1On target7
2Corners4
0.66xG1.4

Goals against chances

Clermont Foot0 from 0.66 xGless than the chances were worth
Guingamp2 from 1.40 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Clermont Foot 4-3-3
  • 30T. GuivarchG
  • 93I. CoulibalyD
  • 21Y. SalmierD
  • 3A. PelmardD
  • 12V. N'SimbaD
  • 26R. KouaméM
  • 28I. M'BahiaM
  • 44A. AckraM
  • 77E. CanteroF
  • 90C. OkouF
  • 7F. BianchiniF
Substitutes
  • 16M. NdiayeG
  • 4E. KabeyaD
  • 6E. KonéM
  • 13J. AsticM
  • 10J. SambiaD
  • 17O. DiopF
  • 23A. HunouM
  • 9Luís SemedoF
  • 22Marouane AdmarM
Coach: David Guion
Guingamp 4-4-2
  • 16Adrián OrtoláG
  • 2E. KoffiD
  • 7D. GomisD
  • 36A. DemouchyD
  • 3J. MatumonaD
  • 11T. AverlantM
  • 4D. LouiserreM
  • 25T. DucrocqM
  • 20S. Ben BrahimM
  • 18S. KieltF
  • 10A. HemiaF
Substitutes
  • 17A. SamouraF
  • 21T. AhileM
  • 31J. MatondoM
  • 24J. DiangangaD
  • 5T. OllilaD
  • 8F. Da SilvaM
  • 1T. BartoucheG
  • 38E. AucanM
  • 35N. FondjaD
Coach: S. Ripoll

Form going into Clermont Foot vs Guingamp

Clermont Foot

Ligue 2

  • D3-3away to Laval16 October 2026
  • L2-3RED Star FC 9310 October 2026

Guingamp

Ligue 2

  • L1-2PAU16 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Nancy9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 2 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Clermont Foot121831115-411
11Guingamp124261618-214

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Clermont Foot vs Guingamp

  • 9 May 2026Clermont Foot 1–0 GuingampLigue 2
  • 24 October 2025Guingamp 0–1 Clermont FootLigue 2
  • 7 March 2025Guingamp 3–1 Clermont FootLigue 2
  • 5 October 2024Clermont Foot 4–1 GuingampLigue 2
  • 2 March 2021Guingamp 0–5 Clermont FootLigue 2
  • 7 November 2020Clermont Foot 0–0 GuingampLigue 2

Leading scorers: Clermont Foot and Guingamp

Clermont Foot

GoalsAssists

  • F. Bianchini41

Guingamp

GoalsAssists

  • B. Bokangu40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Guingamp won 2–0 at Clermont Foot. The model had leaned towards a win for Clermont Foot at 43% and given a win for Guingamp 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Samir Ben Brahim 24' for Guingamp, Samir Ben Brahim 29' for Guingamp. On expected goals it finished 0.66–1.40.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Clermont Foot a 30.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 24.8% after a win, 31.7% after a draw, 36.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 36.7%, 6.2 points higher than before the match.

For Guingamp the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 32.9% going in: 24.7% after a win, 31.4% after a draw, 38.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 24.7%, 8.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 2 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Clermont Foot v Guingamp has moved

First published on 9 Oct at 41% / 29% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 43% / 28% / 29%: the biggest move is Clermont Foot's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Clermont Foot win43%▲ +2
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Guingamp win29%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.