Vitesse vs Emmen Eerste Divisie prediction & result
Final score: Vitesse 0-2 Emmen.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Vitesse, 27% draw, 25% Emmen — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Eerste Divisie predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Vitesse at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Vitesse vs Emmen
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1C. van den BergG
- 2S. BonnahD
- 55M. SteffenD
- 17V. ZumberiD
- 22Xiamaro ThenuD
- 6M. SchikoraM
- 33M. MarschalkM
- 20F. de CarvalhoM
- 16P. DahboM
- 21A. SelloufM
- 9N. BannisF
- 14O. AchouitarD
- 25T. BodakG
- 31M. BrullG
- 28A. BüttnerD
- 19J. HiltermanF
- 24N. MarkeloD
- 43C. Olde KeizerD
- 34Y. OuallilM
- 13J. PintoF
- 1S. KarssiesG
- 24L. EverinkD
- 25R. KongoloD
- 3Y. Dede-LhommeD
- 17B. Van HoveD
- 21A. HojabrpourM
- 7T. RheinM
- 40S. VeldhuisM
- 12F. QuispelM
- 22M. BreijM
- 9J. CooperF
- 33K. RoosG
- 38Kevin NorderG
- 23D. LambersF
- 27J. HuijzerM
- 2J. MukehD
- 8L. DenkM
- 18V. CarusD
- 4C. ØstergaardD
- 14Stan van ManenF
Form going into Vitesse vs Emmen
Vitesse
Eerste Divisie
- W1-0away to FC Eindhoven16 October 2026
- L0-2away to FC Volendam9 October 2026
- D2-2NAC Breda3 October 2026
Emmen
Eerste Divisie
- W2-1Almere City FC17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Vitesse | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 18 |
| 6 | Emmen | 15 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 28 | 30 | -2 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Vitesse vs Emmen
- 3 April 2026Vitesse 3–3 EmmenEerste Divisie
- 30 September 2025Emmen 2–4 VitesseEerste Divisie
- 10 February 2025Vitesse 2–0 EmmenEerste Divisie
- 16 September 2024Emmen 3–3 VitesseEerste Divisie
- 4 February 2023Emmen 2–2 VitesseEredivisie
- 22 October 2022Vitesse 2–1 EmmenEredivisie
Leading scorers: Vitesse and Emmen
Vitesse
GoalsAssists
- N. Bannis103
Emmen
GoalsAssists
- J. Cooper113
- F. Quispel72
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Emmen won 2–0 at Vitesse. The model had leaned towards a win for Vitesse at 48% and given a win for Emmen 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Jack Cooper Love 61' for Emmen, Michael Breij (penalty) 90+6' for Emmen. On expected goals it finished 1.70–3.20.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Vitesse a 67.6% chance to finish in the top eight: 72.5% after a win, 64.8% after a draw, 61.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 61.6%, 6 points lower than before the match.
For Emmen the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 72.3% going in: 78.5% after a win, 72.6% after a draw, 69.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 78.5%, 6.2 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Vitesse v Emmen has moved
First published on 9 Oct at 52% / 25% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 48% / 27% / 25%: the biggest move is Vitesse's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Vitesse win48%▼ −4
- Draw27%▲ +2
- Emmen win25%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.