23 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Dunkerque vs Metz Ligue 2 prediction & result

Stade Marcel Tribut, Dunkerque
Referee: Mickael Leleu, France
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Dunkerque 1-1 Metz.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Dunkerque, 25% draw, 35% Metz — fair odds of 2.50, 4.00 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Dunkerque at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Dunkerque4%Draw90%Metz6%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

9'
⚽Pape Moussa Fall
15'
Abdourahmane Mbodj
Jordan Morel
49'
60'
🔁Abdourahmane Mbodjout: Nathan Mbala
Jordan Morel
61'
⚽Opa Sangante (pen)
65'
⚽Opa Sangante
65'
🔁Souleymane Keitaout: Khalil Ayari
66'
🔁Théna Massockout: Steven​ N'Zonzi
66'
🔁Gaëtan Robailout: Arthylio Nade
73'
🔁Abnerout: Victor Mayela
73'
81'
🔁Giorgi Abuashviliout: Abdoulaye Agne Ba
81'
🔁Bouna Sarrout: Bryan Song
90'
Cristian Castro
🔁Adrian Lebeauout: Franck Leroy Atoen
90+1'
Arthylio Nade
90+2'

Match stats — Dunkerque vs Metz

57%Possession43%
15Shots17
5On target9
2Corners4
1.6xG1.48

Goals against chances

Dunkerque1 from 1.60 xGless than the chances were worth
Metz1 from 1.48 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Dunkerque 4-2-3-1
  • 73Moha AiramG
  • 27A. LinguetD
  • 26Opa SangantéD
  • 2O. TouréD
  • 30AbnerD
  • 6J. MorelM
  • 18Théna MassockM
  • 19S. KeitaM
  • 10A. LebeauM
  • 11E. PrutsevM
  • 9G. RobailF
Substitutes
  • 21L. LoussilahoD
  • 7K. AyariF
  • 25Franck AtoenM
  • 42M. MakhloufiD
  • 22V. MayelaD
  • 94E. MayillaF
  • 23A. NadeF
  • 15S. NzonziM
  • 16M. PrévotG
Coach: Albert Sánchez
Metz 4-1-4-1
  • 1J. FischerG
  • 70B. SarrD
  • 42C. DevenishD
  • 4U. MboulaD
  • 3F. MiguelD
  • 98I. MohamedM
  • 33Abdourahmane MbodjM
  • 8J. DeminguetM
  • 10T. SavanierM
  • 9G. AbuashviliM
  • 11P. FallF
Substitutes
  • 30Tahirys Dos SantosD
  • 2M. ColinD
  • 88A. Agne BaF
  • 22N. MbalaF
  • 18B. MunongoM
  • 7Ibou SanéF
  • 39B. SongD
  • 61P. SyG
  • 12A. TouréM
Coach: Grégory Proment

Form going into Dunkerque vs Metz

Dunkerque

Ligue 2

  • W3-2away to Nantes17 October 2026
  • L0-1Annecy9 October 2026

Metz

Ligue 2

  • W3-2Sochaux17 October 2026
  • L2-4away to Dijon12 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 2 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Dunkerque124351717015
7Metz124532019+117

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Dunkerque vs Metz

  • 17 May 2025Metz 1–0 DunkerqueLigue 2
  • 15 March 2025Dunkerque 2–3 MetzLigue 2
  • 9 December 2024Metz 2–0 DunkerqueLigue 2
  • 7 January 2018Dunkerque 2–4 MetzCoupe de France

Leading scorers: Dunkerque and Metz

Dunkerque

GoalsAssists

  • E. Prutsev32

Metz

GoalsAssists

  • P. Fall81
  • J. Deminguet33

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Dunkerque and Metz drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Dunkerque at 40% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Pape Moussa Fall 9' for Metz, Opa Sangante 65' for Dunkerque. Sent off: Jordan Morel (Dunkerque) 61'. On expected goals it finished 1.60–1.48.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Dunkerque a 10.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 7.0% after a win, 11.0% after a draw, 12.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 11.0%, 0.6 points higher than before the match.

For Metz the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 4.8% going in: 6.5% after a win, 4.0% after a draw, 3.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 4.0%, 0.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 2 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Dunkerque v Metz has moved

First published on 9 Oct at 35% / 26% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 40% / 25% / 35%: the biggest move is Dunkerque's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Dunkerque win40%▲ +5
  2. Draw25%▼ −1
  3. Metz win35%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.