GO Ahead Eagles vs Telstar Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: GO Ahead Eagles 3-2 Telstar.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% GO Ahead Eagles, 25% draw, 28% Telstar — fair odds of 2.13, 4.00 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
GO Ahead Eagles at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — GO Ahead Eagles vs Telstar
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1K. HaugG
- 2A. SampstedD
- 26J. DirksenD
- 4J. KramerD
- 5D. JamesD
- 21M. MeulensteenM
- 8E. LinthorstM
- 11O. SivertsenM
- 10S. TengstedtM
- 17M. SurayM
- 16V. EdvardsenF
- 24J. CillessenG
- 25G. van ZwamD
- 27Tomas GalvezD
- 29E. FlatakerF
- 6T. JukićD
- 18R. MargaretF
- 3G. NauberD
- 34Y. RahmouniM
- 9S. SigurðarsonF
- 1R. KoemanG
- 18G. CaschiliD
- 16S. ValkD
- 4A. SoualhiaD
- 43M. PeersmanD
- 17N. RossenM
- 23N. ShenkmanM
- 42A. MarthaM
- 10T. OwusuM
- 27P. BrouwerM
- 11N. ÞórissonF
- 2J. HardeveldD
- 6Isaiah AhmedM
- 5P. AningM
- 8E. DemircanF
- 14H. KusterM
- 7Rui MendesF
- 13Finn MulderG
- 28R. OudstenD
- 20D. ReizigerG
Form going into GO Ahead Eagles vs Telstar
GO Ahead Eagles
Eredivisie
- L1-4away to PEC Zwolle18 October 2026
- D3-3Sparta Rotterdam10 October 2026
Telstar
Eredivisie
- L3-4Feyenoord17 October 2026
- D2-2ADO Den Haag11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | GO Ahead Eagles | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 17 |
| 16 | Telstar | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: GO Ahead Eagles vs Telstar
GO Ahead Eagles and Telstar have met 7 times in the records we hold, GO Ahead Eagles has won 4 of them to Telstar's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
GO Ahead Eagles won the last one 3–2 on 23 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GO Ahead Eagles | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 10 |
| Telstar | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 13 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 23 goals, an average of 3.29 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 23 Oct 2026
EredivisieGO Ahead Eagles 3–2 Telstar - 8 Feb 2026
EredivisieGO Ahead Eagles 1–1 Telstar - 5 Feb 2026
KNVB BekerTelstar 2–1 GO Ahead Eagles - 28 Sep 2025
EredivisieTelstar 4–2 GO Ahead Eagles - 3 Jul 2024
Friendlies ClubsGO Ahead Eagles 3–0 Telstar - 13 Feb 2021
Eerste DivisieGO Ahead Eagles 1–0 Telstar - 10 Nov 2020
Eerste DivisieTelstar 1–2 GO Ahead Eagles
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, the two attacks rate almost level, and Telstar concede 8% fewer than GO Ahead Eagles. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| GO Ahead Eagles | 0.81 | 1.31 |
| Telstar | 0.80 | 1.21 |
Leading scorers: GO Ahead Eagles and Telstar
GO Ahead Eagles
GoalsAssists
- S. Tengstedt92
Telstar
GoalsAssists
- T. Owusu51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
GO Ahead Eagles beat Telstar 3–2. The model had made a win for GO Ahead Eagles its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Søren Tengstedt 7' for GO Ahead Eagles, Søren Tengstedt 33' for GO Ahead Eagles, Tyrone Owusu 48' for Telstar, Evert Linthorst 67' for GO Ahead Eagles, Sem valk 90+2' for Telstar. On expected goals it finished 1.14–1.07.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave GO Ahead Eagles a 7.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 4.6% after a win, 8.6% after a draw, 10.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.6%, 2.9 points lower than before the match.
For Telstar the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 23.8% going in: 17.3% after a win, 22.7% after a draw, 27.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 27.3%, 3.5 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Eredivisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on GO Ahead Eagles v Telstar has moved
First published on 9 Oct at 50% / 25% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 47% / 25% / 28%: the biggest move is GO Ahead Eagles's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- GO Ahead Eagles win47%▼ −3
- Draw25%=
- Telstar win28%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.