23 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

PAU vs Grenoble Ligue 2 prediction & result

Nouste Camp, Pau
Referee: Gabriel Henry, France
Full time2 – 1

Final score: PAU 2-1 Grenoble.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% PAU, 28% draw, 27% Grenoble — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

PAU at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

PAU97%Draw3%Grenoble0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

18'
🔁Aurélien Pelonout: Farouq Limouri
31'
⚽Ugo Bonnetassist: Yvann Macon
Tom Pouilly
34'
36'
Yvann Macon
Bilal Brahimi
45+3'
🔁Abdoulaye Mbayeout: Babacar Leye
45'
🔁Cheikh Fallout: Jeremy Sebas
56'
🔁Tom Pouillyout: Abdel Hakim Abdallah
56'
Jessy Benet
59'
🔁Bilal Brahimiout: Lorenzo Rajot
67'
Gaëtan Paquiez
69'
73'
🔁Leonardo Cerriout: Kyliann Fofana
T. Debès
74'
74'
Farouq Limouri
⚽Hacene Benaliassist: Jeremy Sebas
77'
81'
🔁Ugo Bonnetout: Jean-Guy Akpa Akpro
81'
🔁Samba Lele Dibaout: Lucas Bernadou
82'
🔁Yvann Maconout: Nesta Zahui
Hacene Benali
85'
86'
Yohann Magnin
⚽Lorenzo Rajot
89'
90+2'
Clement Vidal

Match stats — PAU vs Grenoble

68%Possession32%
16Shots6
5On target1
4Corners1
1.37xG0.76

Goals against chances

PAU2 from 1.37 xGmore than the chances were worth
Grenoble1 from 0.76 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

PAU 5-3-2
  • 1B. MaubleuG
  • 2T. PouillyD
  • 29G. PaquiezD
  • 23A. BriançonD
  • 88A. BambaD
  • 39M. TourraineD
  • 6C. FallM
  • 21J. BenetM
  • 10B. BrahimiM
  • 7H. BenaliF
  • 56Abdoulaye MbayeF
Substitutes
  • 18J. SebasF
  • 27L. GadegbekuM
  • 4A. DodoteD
  • 97A. AbdallahD
  • 11A. LefebvreF
  • 9B. LeyeF
  • 22R. BahengD
  • 5L. RajotM
  • 30E. SallesG
Coach: Thierry Debes
Grenoble 5-3-2
  • 20A. OllieroG
  • 97Y. MaçonD
  • 43A. PelonD
  • 5C. VidalD
  • 21Owen KouassiD
  • 27M. XantippeD
  • 30S. DibaM
  • 6Y. MagninM
  • 14M. CorbozM
  • 12U. BonnetF
  • 17L. CerriF
Substitutes
  • 16B. AllainG
  • 8L. BernadouM
  • 23D. HoogewerfF
  • 2M. DjittéF
  • 47K. FofanaF
  • 3F. LimouriD
  • 10B. MouazanM
  • 92J. Akpa AkproM
  • 19N. ZahuiD
Coach: O. Frapolli

Form going into PAU vs Grenoble

PAU

Ligue 2

  • W2-1away to Guingamp16 October 2026
  • W3-2Laval9 October 2026

Grenoble

Ligue 2

  • L0-2Boulogne16 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Montpellier9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 2 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5PAU126241613+320
17Grenoble123271322-911

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: PAU vs Grenoble

  • 23 January 2026PAU 2–2 GrenobleLigue 2
  • 17 October 2025Grenoble 1–1 PAULigue 2
  • 28 February 2025PAU 1–0 GrenobleLigue 2
  • 30 August 2024Grenoble 1–1 PAULigue 2
  • 24 February 2024Grenoble 0–1 PAULigue 2
  • 28 October 2023PAU 3–2 GrenobleLigue 2

Leading scorers: PAU and Grenoble

PAU

GoalsAssists

  • B. Leye41

Grenoble

No player in Ligue 2's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

PAU beat Grenoble 2–1. The model had made a win for PAU its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Ugo Bonnet 31' for Grenoble, Hacene Benali 77' for PAU, Lorenzo Rajot 89' for PAU. On expected goals it finished 1.37–0.76.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave PAU a 7.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 5.3% after a win, 8.0% after a draw, 10.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.3%, 2.6 points lower than before the match.

For Grenoble the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 39.9% going in: 30.4% after a win, 39.0% after a draw, 45.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 45.0%, 5.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 2 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on PAU v Grenoble has moved

First published on 9 Oct at 38% / 29% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 45% / 28% / 27%: the biggest move is PAU's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. PAU win45%▲ +7
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Grenoble win27%▼ −6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.