22 August 2026, 18:45 UTC

Antwerp vs Genk Jupiler Pro League prediction & result

Bosuilstadion
Full time4 – 4

Final score: Antwerp 4-4 Genk.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Antwerp, 25% draw, 35% Genk — fair odds of 2.50, 4.00 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Antwerp at 40% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Antwerp4%Draw92%Genk4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 8 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽A. Valenciaassist: C. Scott
16'
31'
⚽J. Kongoloassist: I. Bangoura
🔁L. Narhout: I. Salah
46'
🔁A. Valenciaout: C. Mejia
46'
48'
⚽R. Durosinmiassist: J. Erenbjerg
57'
⚽A. Yokoyamaassist: J. Erenbjerg
🔁X. Dierckxout: M. Fofana
59'
🔁L. Schelfhoutout: S. Porozo
65'
69'
🔁R. Durosinmiout: A. Bibout
69'
🔁A. Yokoyamaout: J. Afriyie
70'
⚽A. Biboutassist: J. Afriyie
75'
🔁J. Erenbjergout: D. Heymans
🔁C. Scottout: L. Van Gelder
78'
79'
Daan Heymans
⚽E. Tuypensassist: T. Somers
80'
⚽M. Frey (pen)
86'
⚽M. Freyassist: C. Mejia
88'
90'
🔁J. Itoout: N. Sattlberger

Match stats — Antwerp vs Genk

45%Possession55%
10Shots11
1On target7
4Corners4
0.73xG1.3

Goals against chances

Antwerp4 from 0.73 xGmore than the chances were worth
Genk4 from 1.30 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Antwerp 4-4-2
  • 41T. NozawaG
  • 28L. SchelfhoutD
  • 4Y. TsunashimaD
  • 20R. Van HeldenD
  • 24T. SomersD
  • 7A. ValenciaM
  • 14X. DierckxM
  • 30C. ScottM
  • 27E. Tuypens
  • 9M. FreyF
  • 99L. NarhF
Substitutes
  • 81N. Devalckeneer
  • 44M. BusiD
  • 17S. RendersD
  • 16L. Van GelderM
  • 25M. FofanaM
  • 11G. HairemansM
  • 33S. PorozoM
  • 77I. SalahF
  • 80C. MejiaF
Coach: Marvin Compper
Genk 4-2-3-1
  • 28L. BrughmansG
  • 77Z. El OuahdiD
  • 6M. SmetsD
  • 44J. KongoloD
  • 18J. KayembeD
  • 21I. BangouraM
  • 8B. HeynenM
  • 10J. ItoM
  • 11J. ErenbjergM
  • 30A. YokoyamaM
  • 17R. DurosinmiF
Substitutes
  • 26T. LawalG
  • 20K. AmaroD
  • 19Y. MedinaD
  • 38D. HeymansM
  • 24N. SattlbergerM
  • 29R. MirisolaF
  • 32N. Adedeji-SternbergF
  • 23A. BiboutF
  • 33J. AfriyieF
Coach: Jess Thorup

Form going into Antwerp vs Genk

Antwerp

  • W3-0away to Kortrijk15 August 2026

Genk

  • W3-2KVC Westerlo15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Jupiler Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Antwerp62131113-27
9Genk6231139+49

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Antwerp vs Genk

  • 22 August 2026Antwerp 4–4 GenkJupiler Pro League
  • 19 May 2026Genk 0–0 AntwerpJupiler Pro League
  • 3 April 2026Antwerp 1–2 GenkJupiler Pro League
  • 7 December 2025Antwerp 3–0 GenkJupiler Pro League
  • 3 August 2025Genk 1–1 AntwerpJupiler Pro League
  • 27 April 2025Genk 0–1 AntwerpJupiler Pro League

Leading scorers: Antwerp and Genk

Antwerp

  • M. Frey4 goals
  • A. Valencia3 goals

Genk

  • R. Durosinmi5 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.