22 August 2026, 16:15 UTC

Charleroi vs KV Mechelen Jupiler Pro League prediction & result

Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Charleroi 2-0 KV Mechelen.

Before kick-off the model made it 55% Charleroi, 26% draw, 19% KV Mechelen — fair odds of 1.82, 3.85 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Charleroi at 55% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Charleroi99%Draw1%KV Mechelen0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽A. Ousouassist: P. Pflucke
35'
🔁P. Pfluckeout: F. Mbemba
62'
65'
🔁M. Lohunanu-Mbasiout: B. Bafdili
66'
🔁B. Ramanout: S. Ayodele
🔁A. Boukamirout: I. Cisse
74'
🔁A. Scheidlerout: A. Colassin
74'
76'
🔁D. Praetout: M. Kireev
76'
🔁C. Van Meirvenneout: K. Vanrafelghem
⚽K. Van Den Kerkhofassist: A. Colassin
77'
🔁A. Bernierout: M. Sow
88'
🔁M. Nzitaout: A. Bojang
88'

Match stats — Charleroi vs KV Mechelen

60%Possession40%
12Shots5
4On target0
3Corners2
1.44xG0.23

Goals against chances

Charleroi2 from 1.44 xGmore than the chances were worth
KV Mechelen0 from 0.23 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Charleroi 4-2-3-1
  • 30M. KoneG
  • 3K. Van Den KerkhofD
  • 4A. OusouD
  • 95C. KeitaD
  • 24M. NzitaD
  • 6A. BoukamirM
  • 18Y. KhalifiM
  • 14P. PfluckeM
  • 8J. RomsaasM
  • 17A. BernierM
  • 21A. ScheidlerF
Substitutes
  • 1M. Delavallee
  • 65R. TeugelsD
  • 44M. SowD
  • 33N. SolheidD
  • 51M. KeraM
  • 19I. CisseM
  • 25A. ColassinF
  • 20F. MbembaF
  • 9A. BojangF
Coach: Mario Kohnen
KV Mechelen 3-4-1-2
  • 13N. MirasG
  • 39M. DecoeneD
  • 2L. MarijnissenD
  • 3J. MarsaD
  • 17C. Van Meirvenne
  • 6F. HammarM
  • 26D. PraetM
  • 7T. KoudouM
  • 9M. van BrederodeF
  • 14B. RamanF
  • 19M. Lohunanu-MbasiF
Substitutes
  • 1O. De WolfG
  • 20K. CorbanieD
  • 22L. Golic
  • 10M. KireevM
  • 49M. Van HeldenM
  • 40A. OuahabiM
  • 11B. BafdiliM
  • 27K. VanrafelghemF
  • 16S. AyodeleF
Coach: Frederic Vanderbiest

Form going into Charleroi vs KV Mechelen

Charleroi

  • W1-0away to Lommel United16 August 2026

KV Mechelen

  • D3-3Standard Liege16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Jupiler Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Charleroi6501125+715
16KV Mechelen6024514-92

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Charleroi vs KV Mechelen

  • 22 August 2026Charleroi 2–0 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
  • 7 December 2025KV Mechelen 1–0 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
  • 4 December 2025Charleroi 2–0 KV MechelenCup
  • 28 September 2025Charleroi 0–2 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
  • 18 May 2025KV Mechelen 1–1 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
  • 19 April 2025Charleroi 3–0 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League

Leading scorers: Charleroi and KV Mechelen

Charleroi

No player in Jupiler Pro League's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.

KV Mechelen

  • M. van Brederode3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.