Lommel United vs KVC Westerlo Jupiler Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Lommel United 4-0 KVC Westerlo.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Lommel United, 25% draw, 34% KVC Westerlo — fair odds of 2.44, 4.00 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lommel United at 41% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lommel United vs KVC Westerlo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23Matthias PieklakG
- 2Jason van DuivenD
- 3Timothy EyomaD
- 5Dries WoutersD
- 4Shawn AdewoyeD
- 15Lucas SchoofsM
- 6Joey PelupessyM
- 10Tom ReynersM
- 41Sverre NypanM
- 21Stredair AppuahM
- 9Don-Angelo KonaduF
- 11Zalán VancsaM
- 30Ralf SeuntjensF
- 46Niek CorthoutsF
- 1Nikola IvezićG
- 17Emile VandecraenD
- 44Isaiah Dada-MascollM
- 98Mohamed Salah El BoukammiriF
- 7Juho TalvitieF
- 22Đorđe GordićM
- 99Andreas JungdalG
- 23Lucas MbambaD
- 5Seiji KimuraD
- 4Amando LapageD
- 28Dylan OuregaD
- 12Reda LaalaouiM
- 14Cisse SandraM
- 20Cameron CongreveM
- 13Isa SakamotoM
- 7Shunsuke SaitoM
- 9Norman BassetteF
- 2Lasse FløD
- 47Yang Min-hyeokF
- 22Felix TsimbaF
- 45Ibrahim FofanaM
- 17David AmegnagloF
- 1Bill LathouwersG
- 6Reno MünzD
- 24Michée NdembiD
- 39Thomas Van den KeybusM
Form going into Lommel United vs KVC Westerlo
Lommel United
- L0-1Charleroi16 August 2026
KVC Westerlo
- L2-3away to Genk15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Lommel United | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | KVC Westerlo | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lommel United vs KVC Westerlo
- 23 August 2026Lommel United 4–0 KVC WesterloJupiler Pro League
- 8 July 2022Lommel United 1–2 KVC WesterloFriendlies Clubs
- 8 July 2022KVC Westerlo 2–1 Lommel UnitedFriendlies Clubs
- 2 April 2022Lommel United 2–1 KVC WesterloChallenger Pro League
- 6 February 2022KVC Westerlo 3–0 Lommel UnitedChallenger Pro League
- 27 November 2021Lommel United 0–1 KVC WesterloChallenger Pro League
Leading scorers: Lommel United and KVC Westerlo
Lommel United
- T. Reyners3 goals
KVC Westerlo
- S. Saito3 goals
- N. Bassette3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.