8 November 2026, 23:00 UTC

Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos Primera División prediction & result

Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega, Cusco
Referee: Julio Cesar Quiroz
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Deportivo Garcilaso 0-0 Comerciantes Unidos.

Before kick-off the model made it 55% Deportivo Garcilaso, 24% draw, 21% Comerciantes Unidos — fair odds of 1.82, 4.17 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Deportivo Garcilaso at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Deportivo Garcilaso6%Draw91%Comerciantes Unidos3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Carlos Ramos
7'
42'
Jose Antonio·Parodi
47'
Jean Olivares
54'
Juan Rodríguez
55'
Rodrigo Vilca
63'
🔁Jean Olivaresout: Jhon Sánchez
63'
🔁Agustín Rodríguezout: Alexis Arias
64'
🔁Josuee Herreraout: Mathias Carpio
🔁Christopher Olivaresout: L. Ríos
72'
🔁Adrian Ascuesout: S. Ramírez
72'
77'
Matías Eric Sen
•Erick Canales
78'
Erick Canales
78'
84'
🔁Jose Antonio·Parodiout: Piero Guzmán
Juniors Barbieri
87'
89'
•Thiago Alessandro Salinas Melgar
89'
Thiago Alessandro Salinas Melgar
90+1'
•Flavio Alcedo
90+4'
Flavio Alcedo
90+5'
🔁Mathias Carpioout: Yimy Gamero
•Agustin Gonzalez
90+11'

Match stats — Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos

49%Possession51%
22Shots7
5On target1
9Corners0
1.52xG0.59

Goals against chances

Deportivo Garcilaso0 from 1.52 xGless than the chances were worth
Comerciantes Unidos0 from 0.59 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Deportivo Garcilaso 4-2-3-1
  • 1P. ZubczukG
  • 55E. CanalesD
  • 2A. SalazarD
  • 19A. GómezD
  • 20A. RosellD
  • 18C. RamosM
  • 8A. GonzálezM
  • 24C. OlivaresM
  • 27A. AscuesM
  • 30L. da SilvaM
  • 9F. CastelliF
Substitutes
  • 7L. RíosF
  • 33S. VillacortaD
  • 34Bryan YupanquiF
  • 31J. BarbieriG
  • 6C. M. FloresM
  • 35J. MendozaM
  • 22J. PortalesD
  • 17S. RamírezF
  • 14C. TorrejónM
Coach: Lisandro Greppo
Comerciantes Unidos 4-2-3-1
  • 17Matías CordovaG
  • 20J. ParodiD
  • 40F. AlcedoD
  • 6J. RodriguezD
  • 15A. CossioD
  • 18A. RodríguezM
  • 14Thiago SalinasM
  • 11J. HerreraM
  • 25Rodrigo Gary Vilca BetettaM
  • 50J. OlivaresM
  • 9M. SenF
Substitutes
  • 10M. CarpioM
  • 99José Pablo Alejandro Charún ValdezG
  • 54Y. GameroM
  • 35M. GuevaraF
  • 30P. GuzmánD
  • 19D. LinoD
  • 13M. PérezF
  • 4A. Martín AriasM
  • 32J. SánchezF
Coach: C. Biaggio

Form going into Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos

Deportivo Garcilaso

Primera División

  • W3-2away to UTC Cajamarca2 November 2026
  • L2-3away to Alianza Atletico28 October 2026
  • W4-1Club Deportivo Los Chankas25 October 2026
  • L2-4away to FBC Melgar17 October 2026

Comerciantes Unidos

Primera División

  • D2-2ADT3 November 2026
  • D1-1away to FBC Melgar30 October 2026
  • W3-1Cienciano25 October 2026
  • L2-4away to Sporting Cristal18 October 2026

What these results say

  • Deportivo Garcilaso scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Deportivo Garcilaso conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Deportivo Garcilaso had three goals or more.
  • Comerciantes Unidos scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Comerciantes Unidos conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Comerciantes Unidos.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Peru Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Deportivo Garcilaso33167105035+1555
13Comerciantes Unidos33813124447-337

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos

  • 25 May 2026Comerciantes Unidos 0–0 Deportivo GarcilasoPrimera División
  • 27 July 2025Comerciantes Unidos 0–0 Deportivo GarcilasoPrimera División
  • 16 February 2025Deportivo Garcilaso 2–1 Comerciantes UnidosPrimera División
  • 25 August 2024Comerciantes Unidos 2–1 Deportivo GarcilasoPrimera División
  • 28 March 2024Deportivo Garcilaso 1–2 Comerciantes UnidosPrimera División

Leading scorers: Deportivo Garcilaso and Comerciantes Unidos

Deportivo Garcilaso

GoalsAssists

  • L. da Silva114
  • C. Olivares102

Comerciantes Unidos

GoalsAssists

  • M. Sen113

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Deportivo Garcilaso and Comerciantes Unidos drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Deportivo Garcilaso at 55% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. Sent off: Juniors Barbieri (Deportivo Garcilaso) 87', Thiago Alessandro Salinas Melgar (Comerciantes Unidos) 89'. On expected goals it finished 1.52–0.59.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.