7 November 2026, 20:00 UTC

Club Guarani vs Olimpia Division Profesional - Clausura prediction & result

Estadio Rogelio Livieres
Referee: D. Lopez
Full time1 – 3

Final score: Club Guarani 1-3 Olimpia.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Club Guarani, 30% draw, 35% Olimpia — fair odds of 2.86, 3.33 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Club Guarani at 35%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Club Guarani0%Draw1%Olimpia99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Giovanni Emanuel Gómez Lezcano
8'
16'
⚽Gabriel Ávalosassist: Franco Alfonso
26'
⚽Mateo Gamarraassist: Fernando Cardozo
45+2'
Mateo Gamarra
Miguel Jacquet
45+3'
50'
⚽Gabriel Ávalos (pen)
59'
🔁Eduardo Delmasout: Juan Fernando Alfaro
59'
🔁Franco Alfonsoout: Bernardo Romeo Benitez Farina
⚽Diego·Fernandez (pen)
71'
🔁Juan Manuel Garcíaout: Fernando Fernandez
71'
🔁Giovanni Emanuel Gómez Lezcanoout: J. Llano
71'
74'
🔁Fernando Cardozoout: Iván Leguizamón
74'
🔁Alex Fernando Franco Zayasout: Víctor Sebastián Quintana Herrera
🔁Diego·Fernandezout: P. Coronel
78'
🔁Imanol Segoviaout: Thiago Ezequiel Romero
78'
Thiago Ezequiel Romero
79'
84'
🔁Gabriel Ávalosout: Sebastián Ferreira
87'
Sebastián Ferreira
🔁Armando Méndezout: Daniel Perez
89'

Match stats — Club Guarani vs Olimpia

49%Possession51%
21Shots12
11On target4
4Corners4
1.97xG1.94

Goals against chances

Club Guarani1 from 1.97 xGless than the chances were worth
Olimpia3 from 1.94 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Club Guarani 4-4-2
  • 31M. MartínezG
  • 4A. MéndezD
  • 2I. SegoviaD
  • 23M. JacquetD
  • 15T. ServínD
  • 26D. FernándezM
  • 36L. MartínezM
  • 25G. GómezM
  • 10M. AñascoM
  • 9J. RecaldeF
  • 11J. GarcíaF
Substitutes
  • 34M. MaldonadoM
  • 37J. PérezD
  • 14R. RodríguezD
  • 39C. RolónD
  • 18T. RomeroF
  • 21C. ArrúaM
  • 16Jonatan Marcelo Benítez OtazúM
  • 38P. CoroneF
  • 12G. DionisiG
Coach: F. Arce
Olimpia 4-1-4-1
  • 1G. OlveiraG
  • 27R. CáceresD
  • 2B. BentaberryD
  • 15M. GamarraD
  • 30A. RodríguezD
  • 6R. OrtizM
  • 7F. CardozoM
  • 8A. FrancoM
  • 20E. DelmásM
  • 35F. AlfonsoM
  • 9G. ÁvalosF
Substitutes
  • 12S. LentinellyG
  • 29I. LeguizamónM
  • 11S. FerreiraF
  • 37R. BenitezM
  • 5J. AlfaroM
  • 23E. MatusM
  • 18S. QuintanaM
  • 17R. RedesF
  • 31B. RomeroF
Coach: P. Sánchez

Form going into Club Guarani vs Olimpia

Club Guarani

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • W1-0away to Sportivo Ameliano4 November 2026
  • W1-02 de Mayo30 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Rubio NU23 October 2026
  • L0-2Nacional Asuncion17 October 2026

Olimpia

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • W4-1Deportivo Recoleta5 November 2026
  • W2-0away to Cerro Porteno1 November 2026
  • W3-2away to Sportivo Ameliano25 October 2026
  • W3-02 de Mayo17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Every one of these 4 matches for Club Guarani had two goals or fewer.
  • Club Guarani won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Club Guarani scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Olimpia won every one of these 4 matches.
  • Olimpia scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Olimpia had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Division Profesional - Clausura table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Club Guarani198742117+431
1Olimpia1913333714+2342

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Club Guarani vs Olimpia

  • 2 September 2026Olimpia 1–1 Club GuaraniDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 21 March 2026Club Guarani 0–2 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 25 January 2026Olimpia 2–1 Club GuaraniDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 26 October 2025Olimpia 1–3 Club GuaraniDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 10 August 2025Club Guarani 4–0 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Clausura

Leading scorers: Club Guarani and Olimpia

Club Guarani

No player in Division Profesional - Clausura's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.

Olimpia

GoalsAssists

  • G. Ávalos83
  • A. Alcaraz71
  • R. Benitez43

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Olimpia won 3–1 at Club Guarani. The goals: Giovanni Emanuel Gómez Lezcano 8' for Club Guarani, Gabriel Ávalos 16' for Olimpia, Mateo Gamarra 26' for Olimpia, Gabriel Ávalos (penalty) 50' for Olimpia. On expected goals it finished 1.97–1.94.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Club Guarani a 54.3% chance to finish in the top four: 74.0% after a win, 51.3% after a draw, 37.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 37.3%, 17 points lower than before the match.

For Olimpia the question was the chance to win the league, 97.1% going in: 99.6% after a win, 98.0% after a draw, 94.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 99.6%, 2.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Club Guarani v Olimpia has moved

First published on 1 Nov at 37% / 29% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 35% / 30% / 35%: the biggest move is Club Guarani's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Club Guarani win35%▼ −2
  2. Draw30%▲ +1
  3. Olimpia win35%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.