Velež vs BSK Banja Luka Premijer Liga prediction & result
Final score: Velež 2-3 BSK Banja Luka.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Velež, 26% draw, 30% BSK Banja Luka — fair odds of 2.27, 3.85 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Bosnian Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Velež at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 1Faris RibićG
- 7Ajdin NukićM
- 8Ante HrkaćD
- 55Adin BajrićD
- 5Abdallah Ali MohamedD
- 10Đani SalčinM
- 77Armin BešagićM
- 6Rafidine AbdullahM
- 32Benjamin TatarM
- 44Eldar MehmedovićM
- 19Mahir RahimicF
- 80Nino StojanovićM
- 22Elmin MataradžićG
- 18Said DuranovićD
- 87Nino VukasovićD
- 47Vedad AbidovićM
- 45Kenan ÐulimanM
- 11Aldin MešićM
- 14Benjamin RedzicM
- 28Almir AganspahićF
- 31Srđan ModićG
- 28Denis DizdarevicM
- 20Zoran KvržićD
- 34Diouf Cherif AtabD
- 18Aleksandar SubićD
- 14Ognjen RadoševićM
- 8Boro ErićM
- 32Juraj LjubićM
- 7Nedim KeranovicM
- 49Stefan MarčetićF
- 22David ČavićM
- 24Fedor PredragovićM
- 11Danko RadićM
- 26Nebojša RunićD
- 80Mirza PajićG
- 21Milijan KovacevicD
- 17Filip RačićD
- 19Marko BundaloM
- 10David GavricM
- 27Siniša RistićM
Form going into Velež vs BSK Banja Luka
Velež
Premijer Liga
- D0-0Siroki Brijeg9 October 2026
- L0-2away to Zrinjski19 September 2026
BSK Banja Luka
Premijer Liga
- D1-1Zeljeznicar Sarajevo17 October 2026
- L0-2away to Borac Banja Luka10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Velež | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 12 |
| 5 | BSK Banja Luka | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Velež vs BSK Banja Luka
- 16 August 2026BSK Banja Luka 2–0 VeležPremijer Liga
Leading scorers: Velež and BSK Banja Luka
Velež
GoalsAssists
- N. Stojanović11
BSK Banja Luka
GoalsAssists
- D. Čavić31
- S. Marčetić20
- D. Dizdarevic11
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
BSK Banja Luka won 3–2 at Velež. The model had leaned towards a win for Velež at 44% and given a win for BSK Banja Luka 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Denis Dizdarevic 5' for BSK Banja Luka, Stefan Marčetić 22' for BSK Banja Luka, Ante Hrkać (penalty) 88' for Velež, Aldin Mešić 90' for Velež, Stefan Marčetić 90+1' for BSK Banja Luka. Sent off: Ajdin Nukić (Velež) 51'.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Velež a 24.6% chance to finish in the bottom two: 20.1% after a win, 27.6% after a draw, 29.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 29.1%, 4.5 points higher than before the match.
For BSK Banja Luka the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 30.5% going in: 21.7% after a win, 29.5% after a draw, 35.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 21.7%, 8.8 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Premijer Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.