9 November 2026, 20:15 UTC

Torreense vs União de Leiria Segunda Liga prediction & result

Estadio Manuel Marques, Torres Vedras
Referee: Helder Carvalho
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Torreense 2-3 União de Leiria.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Torreense, 27% draw, 28% União de Leiria — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Torreense at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Torreense0%Draw1%União de Leiria99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Dany Jeanassist: Jorge Aguirre de Céspedes
26'
53'
⚽Pablo Fernandez
59'
⚽Jose Pedro Barros Goncalves
🔁Jorge Aguirre de Céspedesout: musa drammeh
60'
🔁Manuel Pozoout: Costinha
60'
69'
🔁Pablo Fernandezout: Diogo Martins
69'
🔁jaiminhoout: Damien Loppy
🔁L. Quinteroout: Vando Félix
69'
77'
⚽Juan Muñoz
🔁David Brunoout: Jonathan Mutombo Mawesi
82'
🔁João Marquesout: Karem Zoabi
82'
83'
🔁Kouassi Eboueout: Hugo Masaki
83'
🔁Juan Muñozout: Albert Lottin
86'
Diogo Martins
88'
🔁Ibrahima Kalil·Guirassyout: Tharlley Oliveira Da Silva
90'
Jakob·Odehnal
⚽Javi Vazquez
90+3'

Match stats — Torreense vs União de Leiria

47%Possession53%
8Shots19
3On target10
2Corners4

Line-ups

Torreense 4-2-3-1
  • 31AdrielG
  • 22David BrunoD
  • 5M. DiadieM
  • 4Volnei FeltesD
  • 23Javi VázquezD
  • 33João MarquesF
  • 8Alejandro AlfaroM
  • 29L. QuinteroF
  • 11Manu PozoF
  • 7D. JeanM
  • 14Jorge AguirreF
Substitutes
  • 2StopiraD
  • 16Lisandru OlmetaG
  • 3Juan María AlcedoD
  • 45J. MutomboD
  • 6A. OudrhiriM
  • 10CostinhaF
  • 20Carlos ReinaM
  • 21Nuha JattaM
  • 26André SimõesM
Coach: João Nuno
União de Leiria 4-4-2
  • 99J. OdehnalG
  • 68MagaD
  • 44MarceloD
  • 16Zé PedroD
  • 3Marc BaróD
  • 21JaimeF
  • 98IbrahimaM
  • 6E. KouassiM
  • 11Jair da SilvaF
  • 9Juan MuñozF
  • 17Pablo FernándezM
Substitutes
  • 5Miguel NóbregaD
  • 82S. LukisaF
  • 88Diogo MartinsM
  • 29D. LoppyF
  • 25Diogo AmadoM
  • 20Bernardo GomesM
  • 19A. LottinM
  • 18Tharlley Oliveira Da SilvaM
  • 70H. MasakiF
Coach: Fábio Pereira

Form going into Torreense vs União de Leiria

Torreense

Segunda Liga

  • D0-0away to Portimonense31 October 2026
  • W1-0Amarante26 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Tondela10 October 2026
  • D0-0Leixoes11 September 2026

União de Leiria

Segunda Liga

  • W2-1AVS31 October 2026
  • D1-1away to FC Porto B25 October 2026
  • L0-2Academica11 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Amarante13 September 2026

What these results say

  • Every one of these 4 matches for Torreense had two goals or fewer.
  • Torreense failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Torreense failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • União de Leiria conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • União de Leiria failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • União de Leiria scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Torreense102441013-310
5União de Leiria105231613+317

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Torreense vs União de Leiria

  • 8 February 2026Torreense 3–1 União de LeiriaSegunda Liga
  • 11 January 2026Torreense 3–1 União de LeiriaTaça de Portugal
  • 29 August 2025União de Leiria 1–0 TorreenseSegunda Liga
  • 6 April 2025União de Leiria 1–3 TorreenseSegunda Liga
  • 10 November 2024Torreense 2–1 União de LeiriaSegunda Liga
  • 3 August 2024Torreense 0–0 União de LeiriaFriendlies Clubs

The result against the call

União de Leiria won 3–2 at Torreense. The model had leaned towards a win for Torreense at 45% and given a win for União de Leiria 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Dany Jean 26' for Torreense, Pablo Fernandez 53' for União de Leiria, Jose Pedro Barros Goncalves 59' for União de Leiria, Juan Muñoz 77' for União de Leiria, Javi Vazquez 90+3' for Torreense.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Torreense a 7.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 5.5% after a win, 8.1% after a draw, 10.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 10.5%, 2.8 points higher than before the match.

For União de Leiria the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 15.4% going in: 19.4% after a win, 14.5% after a draw, 13.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 19.4%, 4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Segunda Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Torreense v União de Leiria has moved

First published on 26 Oct at 47% / 26% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 45% / 27% / 28%: the biggest move is Torreense's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Torreense win45%▼ −2
  2. Draw27%▲ +1
  3. União de Leiria win28%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.