Regular Season - 17 · 28 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Crewe vs Grimsby League Two prediction

Alexandra Stadium, Crewe

Our model says: Crewe 1–2 Grimsby

The model makes it 32% Crewe, 26% draw, 42% Grimsby — fair odds of 3.13, 3.85 and 2.38.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Crewe 1.38, Grimsby 1.67.

Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Edge to Grimsby: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Crewe's rating is built from 61 League Two matches and Grimsby's from 63, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,288 matches.

Key facts

  • Crewe are 5th on 23 points from 15 games; Grimsby are 3rd on 23 points from 15 games — League Two.
  • Crewe are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Newport County.
  • Grimsby are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 4-1 win away to Swindon Town.
  • Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 11 April 2026, ended Grimsby 3–2 Crewe.

More League Two predictions

All League Two predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Crewe vs Grimsby

61%
Both teams to score
59%
Over 2.5 goals
41%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Crewe win Draw Grimsby win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 1–29%
  3. 2–18%
  4. 0–17%
  5. 0–27%
  6. 2–26%
  7. 1–06%

Scores read Crewe first; the other scorelines share the remaining 46%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Grimsby at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Crewe vs Grimsby

Crewe

League Two

  • D2-2Newport County14 November 2026
  • D1-1Barnet31 October 2026
  • L1-5away to Chesterfield24 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Exeter City20 October 2026
  • W3-2Rochdale17 October 2026

Grimsby

League Two

  • W4-1away to Swindon Town14 November 2026
  • W5-2York31 October 2026
  • W4-1away to Gillingham24 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Rochdale20 October 2026
  • L0-2Northampton17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Crewe conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Crewe failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Crewe scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Grimsby conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Grimsby scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Grimsby had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Crewe155821919023
3Grimsby156542819+923

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Crewe

Chance to finish in the top three · 5% today

Win 7%
Draw 5%
Defeat 4%

Grimsby

Chance to finish in the top three · 42% today

Win 47%
Draw 39%
Defeat 35%

From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Crewe vs Grimsby

  • 11 April 2026Grimsby 3–2 CreweLeague Two
  • 25 October 2025Crewe 3–2 GrimsbyLeague Two
  • 1 April 2025Crewe 2–0 GrimsbyLeague Two
  • 14 December 2024Grimsby 0–2 CreweLeague Two
  • 13 April 2024Crewe 0–3 GrimsbyLeague Two
  • 9 December 2023Grimsby 2–1 CreweLeague Two

Leading scorers: Crewe and Grimsby

Crewe

GoalsAssists

  • J. Gibson52

Grimsby

No player in League Two's leading scorers — 28 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Crewe a 0.7% chance of the title and Grimsby 12.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Crewe v Grimsby has moved

First published on 14 Nov at 34% / 27% / 39% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 32% / 26% / 42%: the biggest move is Grimsby's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Crewe win32%▼ −2
  2. Draw26%▼ −1
  3. Grimsby win42%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Crewe Grimsby
0.48 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.65
2.11 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.96
1.38 Model expected goals (this match) 1.67

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Grimsby the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Crewe against 1.67 for Grimsby. Crewe's attack/defence rating is 0.48/2.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.96 for Grimsby.

Crewe carry a model rating of 6.11 against 6.31 for Grimsby.

How the model reaches 42% for Grimsby to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Grimsby to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Crewe's ratings add 4 points and Grimsby's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 42%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage31%−5
  3. Both sides at this match's level32%+1
  4. Crewe's ratings36%+4
  5. Grimsby's ratings42%+6

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

CreweGrimsby
15Matches15
5W 8D 2LRecord6W 5D 4L
19 1.3 per gameGoals scored28 1.9 per game
19 1.3 per gameGoals conceded19 1.3 per game
4 of 15Clean sheets4 of 15
2 of 15Failed to score3 of 15
1 of 1Penalties scored3 of 4
27 1.8 per gameYellow cards26 1.7 per game
1Red cards1
4-2-3-1 12×Usual shape4-1-4-1 12×

Crewe at home · Grimsby away

8Played8
3W 5D 0LRecord2W 4D 2L
14–10Goals for – against15–11
1 of 8Clean sheets1 of 8

League matches only, League Two, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All League Two matches this season: Crewe 15, Grimsby 15.

Crewe scored 323523
Grimsby conceded 335523

Crewe score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Grimsby have let in 5 there.

Grimsby scored 237464
Crewe conceded 246203

Grimsby score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Crewe have let in 6 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Crewe

  • at Accrington Stanley1 Dec · League Twowin 30%
  • at Cheltenham12 Dec · League Twowin 35%
  • vs Salford City17 Dec · League Twowin 32%
  • at Fleetwood Town26 Dec · League Twowin 30%

Grimsby

  • vs Colchester1 Dec · League Twowin 53%
  • at Chesterfield12 Dec · League Twowin 36%
  • vs Barnet19 Dec · League Twowin 44%
  • at Salford City26 Dec · League Twowin 33%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.