Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: Inter 1-0 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Before kick-off the model made it 71% Inter, 16% draw, 13% Shakhtar Donetsk — fair odds of 1.41, 6.25 and 7.69.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Inter at 71%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Josep MartínezG
- 25M. AkanjiD
- 95A. BastoniD
- 30Carlos AugustoD
- 99D. SpenceM
- 23N. BarellaM
- 20H. ÇalhanoğluM
- 8P. SučićM
- 32F. DimarcoM
- 9M. ThuramF
- 14A. BonnyF
- 7P. ZielińskiM
- 5A. StankovićM
- 49I. ProvedelG
- 48M. MosconiF
- 22H. MkhitaryanM
- 11Luis HenriqueF
- 94F. EspositoF
- 17A. DioufM
- 12R. Di GennaroG
- 31D. RiznykG
- 17Vinícius TobiasD
- 5V. BondarD
- 22M. MatvienkoD
- 13PedrinhoD
- 27O. OcheretkoM
- 30Alisson SantanaM
- 10PedrinhoM
- 6Marlon GomesM
- 77G. MendozaM
- 9Kauã EliasF
- 23K. FesyunG
- 2L. TraoréF
- 25Gabriel CarvalhoF
- 18A. GhramD
- 14IsaqueM
- 20O. KaravaevM
- 8D. KryskivM
- 49Luca MeirellesF
- 37Lucas FerreiraM
Form going into Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk
Inter
UEFA Champions League
- L3-4Club Brugge KV13 October 2026
- L1-2away to Real Madrid8 September 2026
Shakhtar Donetsk
UEFA Champions League
- W3-1AEK Athens FC14 October 2026
- D1-1away to PSV Eindhoven10 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Inter | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 6 |
| 21 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk
- 24 November 2021Inter 2–0 Shakhtar DonetskUEFA Champions League
- 28 September 2021Shakhtar Donetsk 0–0 InterUEFA Champions League
- 9 December 2020Inter 0–0 Shakhtar DonetskUEFA Champions League
- 27 October 2020Shakhtar Donetsk 0–0 InterUEFA Champions League
- 17 August 2020Inter 5–0 Shakhtar DonetskUEFA Europa League
The result against the call
Inter beat Shakhtar Donetsk 1–0. The model had made a win for Inter its most likely outcome, at 71%, so the call held; the score it named was 3–1. The goal: Carlos Augusto 77' for Inter. Sent off: Alessandro Bastoni (Inter) 68'. On expected goals it finished 1.09–0.61.
How the call on Inter v Shakhtar Donetsk has moved
First published on 7 Oct at 63% / 20% / 17% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 71% / 16% / 13%: the biggest move is Inter's chance of winning, up 8 points.
- Inter win71%▲ +8
- Draw16%▼ −4
- Shakhtar Donetsk win13%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.