21 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Madrid
Referee: Istvan Kovacs
Full time4 – 1

Final score: Real Madrid 4-1 RB Leipzig.

Before kick-off the model made it 63% Real Madrid, 19% draw, 18% RB Leipzig — fair odds of 1.59, 5.26 and 5.56.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Real Madrid at 63%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Real Madrid99%Draw1%RB Leipzig0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Bernardo Silva
43'
⚽Arda Gülerassist: Kylian Mbappé
52'
63'
🔁Neil El Aynaouiout: Rocco Reitz
63'
🔁Brajan Grudaout: Andrija Maksimović
Álvaro Fernández Carreras
68'
70'
Rocco Reitz
🔁Viníciusout: Yan Diomande
70'
🔁Álvaro Fernández Carrerasout: Marc Cucurella
70'
73'
🔁David Raumout: Max Finkgräfe
73'
🔁Antonio Nusaout: Tidiam Gomis
78'
🔁Christopher Nkunkuout: Christoph Baumgartner
🔁Arda Gülerout: Brahim Díaz
78'
⚽Kylian Mbappéassist: Yan Diomande
83'
85'
⚽Tidiam Gomisassist: Christoph Baumgartner
⚽Yan Diomandeassist: Brahim Díaz
87'
🔁Kylian Mbappéout: Carlos Espí
88'
🔁Jude Bellinghamout: Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa
88'

Match stats — Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig

65%Possession35%
18Shots11
11On target6
7Corners1
3.13xG1.51

Goals against chances

Real Madrid4 from 3.13 xGmore than the chances were worth
RB Leipzig1 from 1.51 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Real Madrid 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. CourtoisG
  • 8F. ValverdeD
  • 22A. RüdigerD
  • 4D. HuijsenD
  • 18Álvaro FernándezD
  • 6E. CamavingaM
  • 20Bernardo SilvaM
  • 15A. GülerM
  • 5J. BellinghamM
  • 7Vinícius JúniorM
  • 10Kylian MbappéF
Substitutes
  • 12T. Alexander-ArnoldD
  • 21Brahim DíazM
  • 25Y. DiomandeF
  • 24D. DumfriesD
  • 17Marc CucurellaD
  • 3Éder MilitãoD
  • 9EndrickF
  • 19Carlos EspíF
  • 16I. KonatéD
Coach: José Mourinho
RB Leipzig 4-2-3-1
  • 26M. VandevoordtG
  • 17R. BakuD
  • 4W. OrbánD
  • 23C. LukebaD
  • 22D. RaumD
  • 13N. SeiwaldM
  • 21N. El AynaouiM
  • 10B. GrudaM
  • 28C. NkunkuM
  • 7A. NusaM
  • 40RômuloF
Substitutes
  • 14C. BaumgartnerM
  • 3M. EstèveD
  • 35Max FinkgräfeD
  • 27T. GomisF
  • 39B. HenrichsD
  • 16L. KlostermannD
  • 2A. KonéD
  • 30A. MaksimovićM
  • 1Ø. NylandG
Coach: M. Demichelis

Form going into Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig

Real Madrid

UEFA Champions League

  • W4-3away to AS Roma14 October 2026
  • W2-1Inter8 September 2026

RB Leipzig

UEFA Champions League

  • W1-0PSV Eindhoven13 October 2026
  • L1-4away to Como10 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Champions League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Real Madrid4400137+612
30RB Leipzig4103511-63

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig

  • 6 March 2024Real Madrid 1–1 RB LeipzigUEFA Champions League
  • 13 February 2024RB Leipzig 0–1 Real MadridUEFA Champions League
  • 25 October 2022RB Leipzig 3–2 Real MadridUEFA Champions League
  • 14 September 2022Real Madrid 2–0 RB LeipzigUEFA Champions League

The full Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig record →

Leading scorers: Real Madrid and RB Leipzig

Real Madrid

GoalsAssists

  • Kylian Mbappé41

RB Leipzig

No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Real Madrid beat RB Leipzig 4–1. The model had made a win for Real Madrid its most likely outcome, at 63%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Bernardo Silva 43' for Real Madrid, Arda Güler 52' for Real Madrid, Kylian Mbappé 83' for Real Madrid, Tidiam Gomis 85' for RB Leipzig, Yan Diomande 87' for Real Madrid. On expected goals it finished 3.13–1.51.

How the call on Real Madrid v RB Leipzig has moved

First published on 7 Oct at 55% / 24% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 63% / 19% / 18%: the biggest move is Real Madrid's chance of winning, up 8 points.

  1. Real Madrid win63%▲ +8
  2. Draw19%▼ −5
  3. RB Leipzig win18%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.