21 October 2026, 16:45 UTC

Lille vs Galatasaray UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Referee: Rade Obrenovic
Full time2 – 4

Final score: Lille 2-4 Galatasaray.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% Lille, 25% draw, 25% Galatasaray — fair odds of 2.00, 4.00 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Lille at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

2'
⚽Yunus Akgün
⚽Soriba Diaouneassist: Alexsandro
7'
Nabil Bentaleb
21'
27'
•Victor Osimhen
⚽Soriba Diaouneassist: Hákon Arnar Haraldsson
39'
44'
⚽Aleksey Batrakovassist: Roland Sallai
52'
⚽Berke Özer (OG)
Benjamin André
59'
61'
⚽Victor Osimhenassist: Baris Alper Yilmaz
62'
🔁Gabrielout: Mario Lemina
🔁Benjamin Andréout: Maurits Kjaergaard
62'
🔁Maxima Goffiout: Nianzou Tanguy Kouassi
63'
🔁Ngal'ayel Mukauout: Olivier Giroud
63'
🔁Soriba Diaouneout: Gaëtan Perrin
75'
🔁Nabil Bentalebout: Basar Onal
75'
75'
🔁Baris Alper Yilmazout: Eren Elmalı
76'
🔁Yunus Akgünout: Leroy Sané
84'
🔁Victor Osimhenout: Deniz Gül
85'
🔁Aleksey Batrakovout: İlkay Gündoğan
85'
Ismail Jakobs
Gaëtan Perrin
89'

Match stats — Lille vs Galatasaray

56%Possession44%
15Shots10
5On target4
3Corners3
1.92xG1.66

Goals against chances

Lille2 from 1.92 xGabout what the chances were worth
Galatasaray4 from 1.66 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Lille 4-3-3
  • 1B. ÖzerG
  • 38M. GoffiD
  • 3N. NgoyD
  • 4Alexsandro RibeiroD
  • 24C. VerdonkD
  • 17N. MukauM
  • 6N. BentalebM
  • 21B. AndréM
  • 7D. BakwaF
  • 10H. HaraldssonF
  • 35S. DiaouneF
Substitutes
  • 14M. KjærgaardM
  • 23T. NianzouD
  • 19B. ÖnalF
  • 15R. PerraudD
  • 28G. PerrinF
  • 50Thomas SajousG
  • 2L. SrdanovicD
  • 9O. GiroudF
  • 12O. GillG
Coach: Davide Ancelotti
Galatasaray 4-2-3-1
  • 1U. ÇakırG
  • 7R. SallaiD
  • 6D. SánchezD
  • 42A. BardakcıD
  • 4I. JakobsD
  • 34L. TorreiraM
  • 8Gabriel SaraM
  • 11Y. AkgünM
  • 83A. BatrakovM
  • 53B. YılmazM
  • 45V. OsimhenF
Substitutes
  • 17E. ElmalıD
  • 20İ. GündoğanM
  • 19G. GüvençG
  • 99M. LeminaM
  • 73Berat LuşF
  • 74Renato NhagaM
  • 10L. SanéF
  • 90W. SingoD
  • 18L. UgochukwuM
Coach: O. Buruk

Form going into Lille vs Galatasaray

Lille

UEFA Champions League

  • L0-3away to Arsenal13 October 2026
  • L2-3Real Betis8 September 2026

Galatasaray

UEFA Champions League

  • L1-4Barcelona13 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Sporting CP9 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Champions League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
35Lille4013410-61
18Galatasaray420289-16

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Lille and Galatasaray

Lille

No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

Galatasaray

GoalsAssists

  • A. Batrakov40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Galatasaray won 4–2 at Lille. The model had leaned towards a win for Lille at 50% and given a win for Galatasaray 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Yunus Akgün 2' for Galatasaray, Soriba Diaoune 7' for Lille, Soriba Diaoune 39' for Lille, Aleksey Batrakov 44' for Galatasaray, Berke Özer (own goal) 52' for Galatasaray, Victor Osimhen 61' for Galatasaray. On expected goals it finished 1.92–1.66.

How the call on Lille v Galatasaray has moved

First published on 7 Oct at 48% / 26% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 50% / 25% / 25%: the biggest move is Lille's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Lille win50%▲ +2
  2. Draw25%▼ −1
  3. Galatasaray win25%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.