2 November 2026, 23:30 UTC

Concepción vs Palestino Primera División prediction & result

Estadio Municipal Ester Roa Concepcion, Concepcion
Referee: Hector Jona
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Concepción 1-0 Palestino.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Concepción, 29% draw, 31% Palestino — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Concepción at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Concepción97%Draw3%Palestino0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

34'
Marcelo Eggel
⚽Fausto Grilloassist: Joaquín Larrivey
35'
45'
🔁Marcelo Eggelout: Jonathan Benítez
45'
🔁Gonzalo Tapiaout: Ian Zohar Alegría Pindal
52'
Vicente Espinoza
🔁Joaquín Montecinosout: Fernando Romero
59'
63'
🔁Jason Leónout: Joe Abrigo
66'
🔁Jonathan Benítezout: Martin Araya
🔁Matías Cavalleriout: Jorge Henríquez
75'
76'
Bryan Carrasco
Ethan Espinoza
77'
🔁Mateo Gonzálezout: Brayan Véjar
82'
83'
🔁Bryan Carrascoout: Francisco Montes
Mario Sandoval
90+5'

Match stats — Concepción vs Palestino

34%Possession66%
7Shots16
2On target5
3Corners8
0.54xG0.77

Goals against chances

Concepción1 from 0.54 xGabout what the chances were worth
Palestino0 from 0.77 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Concepción 4-2-3-1
  • 25N. ArayaG
  • 28M. GonzálezD
  • 21N. RodríguezD
  • 37F. GrilloD
  • 23C. RiquelmeD
  • 16M. SandovalM
  • 22M. DávilaM
  • 15J. MontecinosM
  • 30E. EspinozaM
  • 24M. CavalleriM
  • 32J. LarriveyF
Substitutes
  • 11B. VéjarM
  • 20J. HenríquezM
  • 9C. EscobarF
  • 3D. CarrascoD
  • 19A. JaraF
  • 14S. A. Espinoza OlaveM
  • 7F. RomeroF
  • 29D. VarasD
  • 12N. VelosoG
Coach: Fernando Díaz
Palestino 4-2-3-1
  • 25S. PérezG
  • 7B. CarrascoD
  • 2V. EspinozaD
  • 3E. RocoD
  • 23J. LeónD
  • 5D. GlabyM
  • 18S. GallegosM
  • 20G. TapiaM
  • 17M. EggelM
  • 27C. MunderM
  • 9R. FernándezF
Substitutes
  • 30I. AlegriaF
  • 21M. ArayaF
  • 11J. BenítezF
  • 16J. BizamaD
  • 4A. CezaD
  • 8N. MezaM
  • 15F. MontesM
  • 14J. AbrigoM
  • 1S. SalasG
Coach: G. Farré

Form going into Concepción vs Palestino

Concepción

Primera División

  • L1-3away to Deportes La Serena24 October 2026
  • D1-1Union La Calera11 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Colo Colo13 September 2026

Palestino

Primera División

  • D1-1Colo Colo25 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Deportes Limache11 October 2026
  • L2-3Universidad Catolica12 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Chile Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Concepción27115113030038
7Palestino27115113938+138

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Concepción vs Palestino

  • 24 April 2026Palestino 0–1 ConcepciónPrimera División
  • 30 April 2025Palestino 4–4 ConcepciónCopa Chile
  • 23 March 2025Concepción 3–2 PalestinoCopa Chile
  • 3 July 2021Concepción 0–4 PalestinoCopa Chile
  • 30 June 2021Palestino 4–0 ConcepciónCopa Chile

Leading scorers: Concepción and Palestino

Concepción

GoalsAssists

  • J. Larrivey73

Palestino

GoalsAssists

  • N. Da Silva82

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Concepción beat Palestino 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Concepción at 40%. The goal: Fausto Grillo 35' for Concepción. On expected goals it finished 0.54–0.77.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Concepción a 2.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: under 1% after a win, 1.6% after a draw, 4.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at under 1%, 1.9 points lower than before the match.

For Palestino the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 25.9% going in: 41.9% after a win, 23.3% after a draw, 15.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 15.6%, 10.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Concepción v Palestino has moved

First published on 18 Oct at 42% / 30% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 40% / 29% / 31%: the biggest move is Palestino's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Concepción win40%▼ −2
  2. Draw29%▼ −1
  3. Palestino win31%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.