2 November 2026, 18:15 UTC

UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso Primera División prediction & result

Estadio Heroes de San Ramon, Cajamarca
Referee: Walter Guadalupe
Full time2 – 3

Final score: UTC Cajamarca 2-3 Deportivo Garcilaso.

Before kick-off the model made it 27% UTC Cajamarca, 27% draw, 46% Deportivo Garcilaso — fair odds of 3.70, 3.70 and 2.17.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Deportivo Garcilaso at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

UTC Cajamarca0%Draw3%Deportivo Garcilaso97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

19'
⚽Facundo Castelliassist: Adrian Ascues
27'
⚽Facundo Castelliassist: Agustin Gonzalez
Dylan Caro
37'
⚽David Camachoassist: David Dioses
38'
⚽Marlon de Jesúsassist: Adolfo Muñoz
45'
45'
🔁S. Ramírezout: Beto Da Silva
Marcos Lliuya
56'
David Dioses
59'
🔁David Diosesout: Luis Arce
61'
🔁Marlon de Jesúsout: Abdiel Arroyo
61'
73'
Agustin Gomez
73'
🔁Adrian Ascuesout: L. Ríos
74'
⚽Agustin Gonzalezassist: Facundo Castelli
🔁Dylan Caroout: Carlos Junior Huerto
75'
78'
🔁Christopher Olivaresout: Claudio Torrejón
88'
•Beto Da Silva
Joshua Cantt
88'
89'
Beto Da Silva
🔁Luis Garroout: Gilmar Paredes
90+1'
🔁David Camachoout: Jhosep Nunez
90+1'
90+1'
🔁Facundo Castelliout: Jefferson Portales

Match stats — UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso

63%Possession37%
9Shots14
2On target5
6Corners7
0.81xG1.48

Goals against chances

UTC Cajamarca2 from 0.81 xGmore than the chances were worth
Deportivo Garcilaso3 from 1.48 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

UTC Cajamarca 4-2-3-1
  • 1Á. CamposG
  • 17L. GarroD
  • 2B. DuarteD
  • 6F. CavagnaD
  • 13D. CaroD
  • 8D. DiosesM
  • 16A. FigueraM
  • 22D. CamachoM
  • 10M. LliuyaM
  • 19A. MuñozM
  • 9M. de JesúsF
Substitutes
  • 21R. BettocchiG
  • 11A. ArroyoF
  • 88L. ArceM
  • 15J. CerroM
  • 3M. GanozaD
  • 18S. GálvezF
  • 5J. HuertoD
  • 7J. NunezF
  • 35G. ParedesD
Coach: C. Molins
Deportivo Garcilaso 4-1-4-1
  • 1P. ZubczukG
  • 55E. CanalesD
  • 2A. SalazarD
  • 19A. GómezD
  • 20A. RosellD
  • 18C. RamosM
  • 24C. OlivaresM
  • 27A. AscuesM
  • 8A. GonzálezM
  • 17S. RamírezM
  • 9F. CastelliF
Substitutes
  • 30L. da SilvaF
  • 33S. VillacortaD
  • 14C. TorrejónM
  • 7L. RíosF
  • 22J. PortalesD
  • 35J. MendozaM
  • 31J. BarbieriG
Coach: Lisandro Greppo

Form going into UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso

UTC Cajamarca

Primera División

  • W3-1away to FC Cajamarca28 October 2026
  • L1-2FBC Melgar23 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Cienciano18 October 2026

Deportivo Garcilaso

Primera División

  • L2-3away to Alianza Atletico28 October 2026
  • W4-1Club Deportivo Los Chankas25 October 2026
  • L2-4away to FBC Melgar17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Peru Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18UTC Cajamarca3359193858-2014
4Deportivo Garcilaso33167105035+1555

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso

  • 17 May 2026Deportivo Garcilaso 2–0 UTC CajamarcaPrimera División
  • 26 September 2025Deportivo Garcilaso 0–0 UTC CajamarcaPrimera División
  • 3 May 2025UTC Cajamarca 2–1 Deportivo GarcilasoPrimera División
  • 13 July 2024Deportivo Garcilaso 1–0 UTC CajamarcaPrimera División
  • 26 January 2024UTC Cajamarca 1–0 Deportivo GarcilasoPrimera División
  • 3 September 2023UTC Cajamarca 0–0 Deportivo GarcilasoPrimera División

Leading scorers: UTC Cajamarca and Deportivo Garcilaso

UTC Cajamarca

No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 38 league goals as a side.

Deportivo Garcilaso

GoalsAssists

  • L. da Silva114
  • C. Olivares102

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Deportivo Garcilaso won 3–2 at UTC Cajamarca. The model had made a win for Deportivo Garcilaso its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Facundo Castelli 19' for Deportivo Garcilaso, Facundo Castelli 27' for Deportivo Garcilaso, David Camacho 38' for UTC Cajamarca, Marlon de Jesús 45' for UTC Cajamarca, Agustin Gonzalez 74' for Deportivo Garcilaso. On expected goals it finished 0.81–1.48.

How the call on UTC Cajamarca v Deportivo Garcilaso has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 24% / 27% / 49% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 27% / 27% / 46%: the biggest move is UTC Cajamarca's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. UTC Cajamarca win27%▲ +3
  2. Draw27%=
  3. Deportivo Garcilaso win46%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.