2 November 2026, 20:30 UTC

Sporting Cristal vs FC Cajamarca Primera División prediction & result

Estadio Alberto Gallardo, Lima
Referee: Michael Espinoza
Full time5 – 0

Final score: Sporting Cristal 5-0 FC Cajamarca.

Before kick-off the model made it 68% Sporting Cristal, 17% draw, 15% FC Cajamarca — fair odds of 1.47, 5.88 and 6.67.

Most likely scoreline: 3-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sporting Cristal at 68%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

21'
José Reinaldo Lugo Quiñónez
21'
Yordi Vílchez
Rafael Lutiger
39'
41'
R. Suárez
⚽Martín Távaraassist: Hernán Barcos
52'
🔁Hernán Barcosout: Michael Hoyos
59'
🔁Rafael Lutigerout: Luis Abram
59'
60'
🔁Carlos Correaout: José Mauricio Arrasco Calderón
⚽Maxloren Castroassist: Michael Hoyos
62'
⚽Luis Ibericoassist: Santiago González
67'
69'
Carlos Meza
🔁Leandro Sosaout: Juan Gonzalez
70'
🔁Luis Ibericoout: Juan Manuel Cuesta
70'
⚽Yordi Vílchez (OG)
71'
🔁Santiago Gonzálezout: Irven Avila
73'
Cristiano
79'
Luis Abram
82'
82'
🔁José Reinaldo Lugo Quiñónezout: Jonathan Betancourt
83'
🔁Brandon Palaciosout: Arthur Alexander Gutiérrez Inga
⚽Juan Manuel Cuestaassist: Michael Hoyos
87'

Match stats — Sporting Cristal vs FC Cajamarca

60%Possession40%
20Shots8
6On target3
5Corners2
1.85xG0.34

Goals against chances

Sporting Cristal5 from 1.85 xGmore than the chances were worth
FC Cajamarca0 from 0.34 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sporting Cristal 4-2-3-1
  • 1D. EnríquezG
  • 8L. SosaD
  • 20M. AraujoD
  • 5R. LutigerD
  • 90Cris SilvaD
  • 6A. ÁlvarezM
  • 25G. TávaraM
  • 7S. GonzálezM
  • 16L. IbericoM
  • 23M. CastroM
  • 29H. BarcosF
Substitutes
  • 21C. CabellosM
  • 33C. BautistaG
  • 96L. AbramD
  • 77J. CuestaF
  • 18J. GonzálezD
  • 22M. HoyosM
  • 27GabrielM
  • 26I. WisdomM
  • 11I. ÁvilaF
Coach: R. Mosquera
FC Cajamarca 4-2-3-1
  • 3J. MedinaG
  • 66R. SuarezD
  • 95Y. VílchezD
  • 21J. VegaD
  • 31S. EncisoD
  • 69C. CorreaM
  • 18Jefferson Gabriel Orejuela IzquierdoM
  • 20C. MezaM
  • 99P. CejasM
  • 17B. PalaciosM
  • 77J. LugoF
Substitutes
  • 26H. TimanáD
  • 32P. AlegriaF
  • 11M. ArrascoM
  • 12S. Aspajo CohenG
  • 88H. CamachoM
  • 27J. BetancourtM
  • 65A. GutiérrezD
  • 90M. RasmussenF
  • 80Valentino Ybrahin Sandoval SánchezF
Coach: Santiago Acasiete

Form going into Sporting Cristal vs FC Cajamarca

Sporting Cristal

Primera División

  • W3-2Alianza Lima29 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Cusco24 October 2026
  • W4-2Comerciantes Unidos18 October 2026

FC Cajamarca

Primera División

  • L1-3UTC Cajamarca28 October 2026
  • L2-4away to Sport Boys25 October 2026
  • L0-1UCV Moquegua18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Peru Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Sporting Cristal33156126348+1551
17FC Cajamarca3387184665-1929

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sporting Cristal vs FC Cajamarca

  • 15 May 2026FC Cajamarca 3–1 Sporting CristalPrimera División

Leading scorers: Sporting Cristal and FC Cajamarca

Sporting Cristal

GoalsAssists

  • H. Barcos134
  • L. Iberico110

FC Cajamarca

GoalsAssists

  • M. Arrasco85
  • B. Palacios84

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sporting Cristal beat FC Cajamarca 5–0. The model had made a win for Sporting Cristal its most likely outcome, at 68%, so the call held; the score it named was 3–1. The goals: Martín Távara 52' for Sporting Cristal, Maxloren Castro 62' for Sporting Cristal, Luis Iberico 67' for Sporting Cristal, Yordi Vílchez (own goal) 71' for Sporting Cristal, Juan Manuel Cuesta 87' for Sporting Cristal. On expected goals it finished 1.85–0.34.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Cajamarca a 53.9% chance to finish in the bottom two: 13.7% after a win, 36.6% after a draw, 62.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 62.2%, 8.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Sporting Cristal v FC Cajamarca has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 62% / 20% / 18% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 68% / 17% / 15%: the biggest move is Sporting Cristal's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. Sporting Cristal win68%▲ +6
  2. Draw17%▼ −3
  3. FC Cajamarca win15%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.