2 November 2026, 16:00 UTC

Sport Huancayo vs FBC Melgar Primera División prediction & result

Estadio Huancayo, Huancayo
Referee: Jordi Espinoza
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Sport Huancayo 2-0 FBC Melgar.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Sport Huancayo, 27% draw, 37% FBC Melgar — fair odds of 2.78, 3.70 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FBC Melgar at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sport Huancayo96%Draw4%FBC Melgar0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

9'
Matías Lazo
Richard Javier Pellejero Ferreira
17'
Jeremy Martin Rostaing
35'
62'
🔁Lautaro Guzmánout: Nicolas Quagliata
62'
🔁Matias Zegarraout: Franco Zanelatto
🔁Diego Carabañoout: E. Villar
64'
🔁Daniel porozoout: Juan David Martínez
64'
66'
Cristian Bordacahar
72'
Walter Tandazo
🔁Piero Magallanesout: Juan Gimenez
74'
•Nahuel Lujan
77'
Jimmy Valoyes
80'
⚽Javier Sanguinetti (pen)
80'
82'
🔁Walter Tandazoout: Patricio Núñez
82'
🔁Nelson Cabanillasout: Jhamir D'Arrigo
🔁Javier Sanguinettiout: Yonatan Murillo
87'
90'
🔁Juan Escobarout: Alec Deneumostier
⚽Juan David Martínezassist: E. Villar
90+5'
Jimmy Valoyes
90+8'

Match stats — Sport Huancayo vs FBC Melgar

52%Possession48%
19Shots12
7On target1
3Corners5
1.92xG1.09

Goals against chances

Sport Huancayo2 from 1.92 xGabout what the chances were worth
FBC Melgar0 from 1.09 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sport Huancayo 4-2-3-1
  • 12Á. ZamudioG
  • 16J. FalconíD
  • 26M. GaonaD
  • 70J. ValoyesD
  • 28J. RostaingD
  • 91A. QuiñónezM
  • 8D. CarabañoM
  • 23P. MagallanesM
  • 10N. LujánM
  • 11Javier Andrés SanguinettiM
  • 97D. PorozoF
Substitutes
  • 24R. AndiaD
  • 4J. BarredaD
  • 7R. CampodónicoM
  • 29A. CcorahuaG
  • 17J. GiménezF
  • 19R. HuacchaF
  • 9J. MartínezF
  • 92Y. MurilloD
  • 38E. VillarM
Coach: R. Pellejero
FBC Melgar 4-4-2
  • 21J. CabezudoG
  • 33M. LazoD
  • 23J. EscobarD
  • 3L. GonzálezD
  • 27N. CabanillasD
  • 7C. BordacaharM
  • 24W. TandazoM
  • 25K. MindaM
  • 45Matias ZegarraM
  • 8L. GuzmánF
  • 11J. VidalesF
Substitutes
  • 10N. QuagliataF
  • 26M. PortilloM
  • 36P. NunezM
  • 20G. GarcíaM
  • 5A. DeneumostierD
  • 80J. D´ArrigoM
  • 12C. CácedaG
  • 90J. AlcántarD
  • 77F. ZanelattoF
Coach: M. Rondelli

Form going into Sport Huancayo vs FBC Melgar

Sport Huancayo

Primera División

  • L0-2away to Juan Pablo II College27 October 2026
  • W4-1Alianza Atletico24 October 2026
  • W2-1Cusco16 October 2026

FBC Melgar

Primera División

  • D1-1Comerciantes Unidos30 October 2026
  • W2-1away to UTC Cajamarca23 October 2026
  • W4-2Deportivo Garcilaso17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Peru Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Sport Huancayo33155134849-150
3FBC Melgar3316985638+1857

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sport Huancayo vs FBC Melgar

  • 16 May 2026FBC Melgar 4–1 Sport HuancayoPrimera División
  • 26 October 2025FBC Melgar 2–0 Sport HuancayoPrimera División
  • 21 June 2025Sport Huancayo 2–2 FBC MelgarPrimera División
  • 27 October 2024Sport Huancayo 2–4 FBC MelgarPrimera División
  • 18 May 2024FBC Melgar 4–1 Sport HuancayoPrimera División
  • 27 August 2023FBC Melgar 1–3 Sport HuancayoPrimera División

Leading scorers: Sport Huancayo and FBC Melgar

Sport Huancayo

GoalsAssists

  • Javier Andrés Sanguinetti105

FBC Melgar

GoalsAssists

  • B. Cuesta156
  • J. Vidales141

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sport Huancayo beat FBC Melgar 2–0. The model had leaned towards a win for FBC Melgar at 37% and given a win for Sport Huancayo 36%. The goals: Javier Sanguinetti (penalty) 80' for Sport Huancayo, Juan David Martínez 90+5' for Sport Huancayo. Sent off: Jimmy Valoyes (Sport Huancayo) 90+8'. On expected goals it finished 1.92–1.09.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FBC Melgar a 4.4% chance to finish in the top two: 9.1% after a win, 1.6% after a draw, 1.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 1.2%, 3.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.