Corinthians vs Vitoria Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Corinthians 1-1 Vitoria.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Corinthians, 29% draw, 26% Vitoria — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Corinthians at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Corinthians vs Vitoria
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Hugo SouzaG
- 2MatheuzinhoD
- 3Gabriel PaulistaD
- 13Gustavo HenriqueD
- 26F. AngileriD
- 49AndreM
- 7BrenoM
- 11VitinhoM
- 8R. GarroM
- 77J. LingardM
- 9Yuri AlbertoF
- 37Kaio CésarF
- 19A. CarrilloM
- 4João PedroD
- 51Kauê CamargoG
- 21Matheus BiduD
- 56Guilherme InácioF
- 61DieguinhoM
- 35CharlesM
- 20P. MilansD
- 1Lucas ArcanjoG
- 98MateusinhoD
- 2E. BrítezD
- 36Luan CândidoD
- 83JamersonD
- 6E. MartínezM
- 33ErickM
- 10MatheuzinhoM
- 95CaíqueM
- 12D. TarziaM
- 91ReneF
- 88Zé VitorM
- 23FabrícioF
- 77I. LaquintanaM
- 20Lucas SilvaF
- 7MarinhoF
- 8T. PochettinoM
- 16Rúben IsmaelM
- 79Renato KayzerF
- 15WalaceM
Form going into Corinthians vs Vitoria
Corinthians
Serie A
- L1-4away to Palmeiras11 October 2026
Vitoria
Serie A
- L1-2away to Sao Paulo11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Corinthians | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 36 | 42 | -6 | 37 |
| 15 | Vitoria | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Corinthians vs Vitoria
- 18 April 2026Vitoria 0–0 CorinthiansSerie A
- 25 October 2025Vitoria 0–1 CorinthiansSerie A
- 1 June 2025Corinthians 0–0 VitoriaSerie A
- 9 November 2024Vitoria 1–2 CorinthiansSerie A
- 4 July 2024Corinthians 3–2 VitoriaSerie A
- 21 October 2018Vitoria 2–2 CorinthiansSerie A
Leading scorers: Corinthians and Vitoria
Corinthians
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 36 league goals as a side.
Vitoria
GoalsAssists
- Rene101
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Corinthians and Vitoria drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Corinthians at 45% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Carlos Renê de Sousa Ferreira 45+1' for Vitoria, Yuri Alberto (penalty) 66' for Corinthians. On expected goals it finished 1.64–0.84.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Corinthians a 32.5% chance to finish in the bottom four: 20.1% after a win, 38.5% after a draw, 49.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 38.5%, 6 points higher than before the match.
For Vitoria the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 13.6% going in: 3.2% after a win, 11.5% after a draw, 18.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 11.5%, 2.1 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Corinthians v Vitoria has moved
First published on 4 Oct at 44% / 31% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 45% / 29% / 26%: the biggest move is the draw, down 2 points.
- Corinthians win45%▲ +1
- Draw29%▼ −2
- Vitoria win26%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.