18 October 2026, 10:30 UTC

Udinese vs Lecce Serie A prediction & result

Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli, Udine
Referee: Marco Guida
Full time0 – 3

Final score: Udinese 0-3 Lecce.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Udinese, 28% draw, 25% Lecce — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Udinese at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Udinese0%Draw1%Lecce99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
⚽Kialonda Gasparassist: Antonino Gallo
33'
⚽Konan N'Driassist: Tiago Gabriel
41'
🔁Lassana Coulibalyout: Mohamed Kaba
Hassane Kamara
43'
🔁David Alabaout: Matteo Palma
45'
🔁Hassane Kamaraout: Juan Arizala
45'
🔁Oier Zarragaout: Jakub Piotrowski
45'
•Jakub Piotrowski
59'
🔁Giorgi Chakvetadzeout: Unai Gómez
64'
🔁Enzo Ebosseout: Alessandro Zanoli
64'
69'
🔁Amar Fatahout: Santiago Pierotti
70'
🔁Willem Geubbelsout: Paco Esteban
82'
🔁Konan N'Driout: Joel Almada Monteiro
82'
🔁Youssef Malehout: Jamil Siebert
86'
⚽Jamil Siebert

Match stats — Udinese vs Lecce

67%Possession33%
14Shots17
2On target11
1Corners4
0.63xG3.45

Goals against chances

Udinese0 from 0.63 xGless than the chances were worth
Lecce3 from 3.45 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Udinese 3-4-2-1
  • 40M. OkoyeG
  • 28O. SoletD
  • 5D. AlabaD
  • 77E. EbosseD
  • 23M. VojvodaM
  • 8J. KarlströmM
  • 6Oier ZarragaM
  • 11H. KamaraM
  • 32J. EkkelenkampM
  • 30G. ChakvetadzeM
  • 9K. DavisF
Substitutes
  • 45G. VinciatiF
  • 13N. BertolaD
  • 14J. AbankwahD
  • 24J. PiotrowskiM
  • 59A. ZanoliD
  • 20J. ArizalaM
  • 46Unai GómezM
  • 91L. JovanovićF
  • 27C. KabaseleD
Coach: K. Runjaic
Lecce 4-3-3
  • 30W. FalconeG
  • 17Danilo VeigaD
  • 4Kialonda GasparD
  • 44Tiago GabrielD
  • 25A. GalloD
  • 29L. CoulibalyM
  • 79O. NgomM
  • 14Y. MalehM
  • 11K. N’DriF
  • 69W. GeubbelsF
  • 7A. Ahmed FatahF
Substitutes
  • 22Paco EstebanF
  • 8S. FofanaM
  • 16O. GandelmanM
  • 28Olaf GorterM
  • 18G. JeanD
  • 77M. KabaM
  • 99Joël MonteiroF
  • 3C. NdabaD
  • 50S. PierottiF
Coach: E. Di Francesco

Form going into Udinese vs Lecce

Udinese

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to Torino12 October 2026
  • L0-1Cagliari19 September 2026
  • L3-5away to Inter14 September 2026
  • L1-2Lazio7 September 2026
  • W3-2away to Monza29 August 2026

Lecce

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2Bologna11 October 2026
  • L0-3away to AC Milan20 September 2026
  • W3-2Monza13 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Cagliari7 September 2026
  • L0-4AS Roma31 August 2026

What these results say

  • Udinese conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Udinese failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Udinese scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Lecce conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Lecce failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Lecce had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
20Udinese111281225-135
14Lecce113171222-1010

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Udinese vs Lecce

  • 8 February 2026Lecce 2–1 UdineseSerie A
  • 25 October 2025Udinese 3–2 LecceSerie A
  • 21 February 2025Lecce 0–1 UdineseSerie A
  • 5 October 2024Udinese 1–0 LecceSerie A
  • 13 May 2024Lecce 0–2 UdineseSerie A
  • 23 October 2023Udinese 1–1 LecceSerie A

The full Udinese vs Lecce record →

The result against the call

Lecce won 3–0 at Udinese. The model had leaned towards a win for Udinese at 47% and given a win for Lecce 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Kialonda Gaspar 11' for Lecce, Konan N'Dri 33' for Lecce, Jamil Siebert 86' for Lecce. On expected goals it finished 0.63–3.45.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Udinese a 10.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 8.3% after a win, 11.8% after a draw, 14.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 14.4%, 3.7 points higher than before the match.

For Lecce the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 45.9% going in: 38.1% after a win, 43.2% after a draw, 50.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 38.1%, 7.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Udinese v Lecce has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 44% / 29% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 47% / 28% / 25%: the biggest move is Udinese's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Udinese win47%▲ +3
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Lecce win25%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.