19 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Parma vs Torino Serie A prediction & result

Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma
Referee: Giovanni Ayroldi
Full time0 – 3

Final score: Parma 0-3 Torino.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Parma, 31% draw, 37% Torino — fair odds of 3.13, 3.23 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Torino at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Parma0%Draw1%Torino99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

4'
⚽Giovanni Simeoneassist: Rafik Belghali
24'
⚽Che Adams
Diego Carlos
28'
37'
Ardian Ismajli
🔁Diego Carlosout: Dominik Drobnic
45'
🔁Giovanni Fabbianout: Simone Lontani
45'
Sascha Britschgi
54'
63'
🔁Che Adamsout: Sandro Kulenović
63'
🔁Rolando Mandragoraout: Gvidas Gineitis
69'
⚽Giovanni Simeoneassist: Rafik Belghali
🔁Sascha Britschgiout: Djibril Diallo
70'
🔁El Bilal Toureout: Matija Frigan
70'
73'
🔁Rafik Belghaliout: Zakaria Aboukhlal
73'
🔁Nikola Vlašićout: Cesare Casadei
75'
Pietro Comuzzo
🔁Adrián Bernabé Garcíaout: Christian Ordóñez
80'
•Matija Frigan
82'
83'
🔁Giovanni Simeoneout: Duván Zapata
Mariano Troilo
90+2'

Match stats — Parma vs Torino

51%Possession49%
25Shots9
8On target3
6Corners2
1.43xG1.37

Goals against chances

Parma0 from 1.43 xGless than the chances were worth
Torino3 from 1.37 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Parma 3-4-2-1
  • 40E. CorviG
  • 34Diego CarlosD
  • 37M. TroiloD
  • 15E. Del PratoD
  • 27S. BritschgiM
  • 10Adrián BernabéM
  • 16M. KeitaM
  • 14E. ValeriM
  • 80G. FabbianM
  • 19E. TouréM
  • 9D. RomeroF
Substitutes
  • 8B. CremaschiM
  • 29F. CarboniD
  • 30G. DaffaraG
  • 25T. De MartisF
  • 72D. DrobnicD
  • 20M. FriganF
  • 22S. GhidottiG
  • 47Abdou KonateM
  • 76S. LontaniF
Coach: A. Gilardino
Torino 3-4-1-2
  • 20Lucas PerriG
  • 23Saúl CocoD
  • 44A. IsmajliD
  • 15P. ComuzzoD
  • 45R. BelghaliM
  • 8R. MandragoraM
  • 21Daniel BragançaM
  • 77A. CacciamaniM
  • 10N. VlašićM
  • 18G. SimeoneF
  • 19C. AdamsF
Substitutes
  • 22C. CasadeiM
  • 5E. CömertD
  • 28K. Fitz-JimM
  • 66G. GineitisM
  • 17S. KulenovićF
  • 26D. MascardiG
  • 11G. OristanioM
  • 2N. PattersonD
  • 9P. PellegriF
Coach: Ignazio Abate

Form going into Parma vs Torino

Parma

All competitions we cover

  • L0-3away to Inter10 October 2026
  • W2-1Genoa20 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Como14 September 2026
  • D1-1Monza6 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Juventus29 August 2026

Torino

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1Udinese12 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Bologna19 September 2026
  • L0-2AS Roma14 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Fiorentina5 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Sassuolo29 August 2026

What these results say

  • Parma conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Parma failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Torino conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Torino scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Torino.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Parma11227917-88
11Torino114251517-214

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Parma vs Torino

  • 13 March 2026Torino 4–1 ParmaSerie A
  • 29 September 2025Parma 2–1 TorinoSerie A
  • 8 March 2025Parma 2–2 TorinoSerie A
  • 5 January 2025Torino 0–0 ParmaSerie A
  • 3 May 2021Torino 1–0 ParmaSerie A
  • 3 January 2021Parma 0–3 TorinoSerie A

The full Parma vs Torino record →

Leading scorers: Parma and Torino

Parma

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

Torino

GoalsAssists

  • C. Adams40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Torino won 3–0 at Parma. The model had made a win for Torino its most likely outcome, at 37%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Giovanni Simeone 4' for Torino, Che Adams 24' for Torino, Giovanni Simeone 69' for Torino. On expected goals it finished 1.43–1.37.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Parma a 42.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 32.8% after a win, 44.0% after a draw, 47.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 47.9%, 5.9 points higher than before the match.

For Torino the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 13.8% going in: 9.7% after a win, 13.7% after a draw, 18.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.7%, 4.1 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Parma v Torino has moved

First published on 5 Oct at 34% / 32% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 32% / 31% / 37%: the biggest move is Torino's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Parma win32%▼ −2
  2. Draw31%▼ −1
  3. Torino win37%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.