19 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Derry City vs St Patrick's Athletic Premier Division prediction & result

The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Derry
Referee: Aaron O'Dowd
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Derry City 1-0 St Patrick's Athletic.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Derry City, 31% draw, 37% St Patrick's Athletic — fair odds of 3.13, 3.23 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

St Patrick's Athletic at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Derry City96%Draw4%St Patrick's Athletic0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Darragh Burns
21'
🔁Brooklyn Lyons-Fosterout: Conor Barry
45'
53'
Anthony Olusanya
57'
🔁Aidan Keenaout: Ryan Edmondson
57'
🔁Anto Breslinout: Jason McClelland
⚽Kévin Santosassist: Darragh Burns
62'
63'
🔁Kian Leavyout: Christopher Forrester
64'
🔁Barry Baggleyout: Ryan Sheridan
James Clarke
70'
🔁Kévin Santosout: Darragh Markey
72'
75'
🔁Luke·Turnerout: Romal Palmer
🔁nick twiskout: Cameron Dummigan
80'
80'
Christopher Forrester
🔁Tyler·Smithout: Terence Doherty
85'

Match stats — Derry City vs St Patrick's Athletic

47%Possession53%
10Shots29
3On target5
3Corners10
0.7xG2.61

Goals against chances

Derry City1 from 0.70 xGabout what the chances were worth
St Patrick's Athletic0 from 2.61 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Derry City 4-3-3
  • 13Tom NorcottG
  • 24Brooklyn Lyons-FosterD
  • 4J. StottD
  • 3Patrick McCleanD
  • 19B. FlemingD
  • 15J. ClarkeM
  • 17N. TwiskM
  • 14E. ChapmanM
  • 12D. BurnsF
  • 29T. SmithF
  • 21Kévin SantosF
Substitutes
  • 23C. DummiganD
  • 32T. DohertyF
  • 22C. BarrD
  • 25Christy GroganD
  • 35L. KellyM
  • 1B. MaherG
  • 10D. MarkeyM
  • 34C. O'DonnellM
  • 11G. WhyteM
Coach: Mark Connolly
St Patrick's Athletic 3-1-4-2
  • 94J. AnangG
  • 4J. RedmondD
  • 2S. HoareD
  • 24L. TurnerD
  • 6J. LennonM
  • 7Z. ElbouzediM
  • 10K. LeavyM
  • 19B. BaggleyM
  • 3A. BreslinM
  • 21A. OlusanyaF
  • 9A. KeenaF
Substitutes
  • 48R. SheridanM
  • 23J. BrownD
  • 27R. EdmondsonF
  • 8C. ForresterM
  • 11J. McClellandF
  • 33S. McHaleD
  • 16D. NugentM
  • 17R. PalmerM
  • 1D. RogersG
Coach: S. Kenny

Form going into Derry City vs St Patrick's Athletic

Derry City

Premier Division

  • L0-2away to Drogheda United16 October 2026
  • W1-0Galway United18 September 2026

St Patrick's Athletic

Premier Division

  • L1-2Shelbourne16 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Sligo Rovers19 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Derry City361115105047+348
3St Patrick's Athletic36179105531+2460

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Derry City vs St Patrick's Athletic

  • 2 August 2026St Patrick's Athletic 1–1 Derry CityPremier Division
  • 22 May 2026Derry City 0–0 St Patrick's AthleticPremier Division
  • 16 March 2026St Patrick's Athletic 0–0 Derry CityPremier Division
  • 29 August 2025Derry City 2–2 St Patrick's AthleticPremier Division
  • 23 June 2025St Patrick's Athletic 0–1 Derry CityPremier Division
  • 5 May 2025Derry City 1–0 St Patrick's AthleticPremier Division

Leading scorers: Derry City and St Patrick's Athletic

Derry City

GoalsAssists

  • M. Duffy115
  • J. Clarke73

St Patrick's Athletic

GoalsAssists

  • A. Keena105
  • R. Edmondson101
  • K. Leavy73

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Derry City beat St Patrick's Athletic 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for St Patrick's Athletic at 37% and given a win for Derry City 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Kévin Santos 62' for Derry City. On expected goals it finished 0.70–2.61.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Derry City a 19.5% chance to finish in the top four: 39.1% after a win, 14.0% after a draw, 7.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 39.1%, 19.6 points higher than before the match.

For St Patrick's Athletic the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season: 12.0% after a win, 2.1% after a draw, under 1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at under 1%.

Read from our Premier Division season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.