Juventus vs Lazio Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Juventus 0-3 Lazio.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Juventus, 29% draw, 23% Lazio — fair odds of 2.08, 3.45 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Juventus at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Juventus vs Lazio
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25G. VicarioG
- 15P. KaluluD
- 3BremerD
- 26J. LucumíD
- 2Z. ÇelikD
- 12Douglas LuizM
- 29P. SarrM
- 31N. GonzálezM
- 22W. McKennieM
- 17Kerim-Sam AlajbegovićM
- 9R. Kolo MuaniF
- 32J. CabalD
- 20A. CambiasoD
- 7Francisco ConceiçãoF
- 4F. GattiD
- 6L. KellyD
- 8T. KoopmeinersM
- 33NetoG
- 23C. PinsoglioG
- 24D. RuganiD
- 35C. MandasG
- 15R. Floriani MussoliniD
- 37J. ŠutaloD
- 25O. ProvstgaardD
- 17Nuno TavaresD
- 16D. FrattesiM
- 21R. BelahyaneM
- 24K. TaylorM
- 11G. IsaksenF
- 14T. NoslinF
- 10M. ZaccagniF
- 5D. DoekhiD
- 71V. FarcomeniM
- 29M. LazzariM
- 2Diogo LeiteD
- 40E. MottaG
- 23PedrazaD
- 3L. PellegriniD
- 9A. PinamontiF
- 28A. PrzyborekM
Form going into Juventus vs Lazio
Juventus
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Celta Vigo15 October 2026
- D1-1away to Cagliari11 October 2026
- W2-0Atalanta20 September 2026
- W5-0NEC Nijmegen17 September 2026
- L2-3away to Sassuolo13 September 2026
Lazio
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Monza11 October 2026
- W2-0away to Venezia19 September 2026
- D2-2AC Milan12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Udinese7 September 2026
- W1-0Genoa30 August 2026
What these results say
- Juventus scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lazio went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Lazio scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lazio won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Juventus | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 18 |
| 1 | Lazio | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 9 | +16 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Juventus vs Lazio
- 8 February 2026Juventus 2–2 LazioSerie A
- 26 October 2025Lazio 1–0 JuventusSerie A
- 10 May 2025Lazio 1–1 JuventusSerie A
- 19 October 2024Juventus 1–0 LazioSerie A
- 23 April 2024Lazio 2–1 JuventusCoppa Italia
- 2 April 2024Juventus 2–0 LazioCoppa Italia
Leading scorers: Juventus and Lazio
Juventus
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
Lazio
GoalsAssists
- T. Noslin44
- G. Isaksen41
- D. Frattesi40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Lazio won 3–0 at Juventus. The model had leaned towards a win for Juventus at 48% and given a win for Lazio 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Oliver Provstgaard 37' for Lazio, Gustav Isaksen 66' for Lazio, Fisayo Dele-Bashiru 89' for Lazio. On expected goals it finished 0.79–0.59.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Juventus a 51.2% chance to finish in the top four: 55.5% after a win, 49.3% after a draw, 43.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 43.3%, 7.9 points lower than before the match.
For Lazio the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 19.3% going in: 25.4% after a win, 18.5% after a draw, 16.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 25.4%, 6.1 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Juventus v Lazio has moved
First published on 4 Oct at 45% / 30% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 48% / 29% / 23%: the biggest move is Juventus's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Juventus win48%▲ +3
- Draw29%▼ −1
- Lazio win23%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.