19 October 2026, 16:30 UTC

Monza vs Cagliari Serie A prediction & result

Monza
Referee: Andrea Calzavara
Full time4 – 0

Final score: Monza 4-0 Cagliari.

Before kick-off the model made it 30% Monza, 28% draw, 42% Cagliari — fair odds of 3.33, 3.57 and 2.38.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Cagliari at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Monza99%Draw1%Cagliari0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Eddy Kouadioassist: Dany Mota
39'
⚽Gustavo Varelaassist: Foe Ondoa
47'
53'
🔁M'Bala Nzolaout: Alieu Fadera
🔁Dany Motaout: Andrea Colpani
64'
⚽Jay Robinsonassist: Gustavo Varela
66'
67'
🔁Zé Pedroout: Yukinari Sugawara
67'
🔁Daniel Maldiniout: Kevin Carlos
76'
Harry Winks
⚽Gustavo Varela
79'
🔁Ebenezer Akinsanmiroout: Michael Folorunsho
81'
🔁Gustavo Varelaout: Patrick Cutrone
81'
🔁Eddy Kouadioout: Adam Bakoune
81'
81'
🔁Alessandro Romanoout: Alessandro Deiola
81'
🔁Harry Winksout: Joseph Liteta
Samuele Birindelli
82'
82'
Alieu Fadera
🔁Jay Robinsonout: Omari Forson
87'

Match stats — Monza vs Cagliari

45%Possession55%
14Shots16
6On target5
2Corners7
2.08xG1.92

Goals against chances

Monza4 from 2.08 xGmore than the chances were worth
Cagliari0 from 1.92 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Monza 3-4-2-1
  • 1N. TörnqvistG
  • 60E. KouadioD
  • 2S. GoglichidzeD
  • 44A. CarboniD
  • 19S. BirindelliM
  • 8M. OndoaM
  • 14E. AkinsanmiroM
  • 7Ricardo MangasM
  • 47Dany MotaM
  • 46Jay RobinsonM
  • 9Gustavo VarelaF
Substitutes
  • 6V. AntovD
  • 24A. BakouneD
  • 26P. CiurriaF
  • 21L. ColomboM
  • 28A. ColpaniM
  • 10P. CutroneF
  • 90M. FolorunshoM
  • 11O. ForsonF
  • 80M. MoutM
Coach: I. Juric
Cagliari 4-3-1-2
  • 1E. CaprileG
  • 2Zé PedroD
  • 26Y. MinaD
  • 15J. RodríguezD
  • 33A. ObertD
  • 8M. AdopoM
  • 6H. WinksM
  • 4A. RomanoM
  • 70D. MaldiniM
  • 31P. MendyF
  • 18M'Bala NzolaF
Substitutes
  • 28Y. SugawaraD
  • 32Ivan Stoyanov SulevM
  • 14A. DeiolaM
  • 12A. SherriG
  • 23B. RadunovićG
  • 79Y. MassolinM
  • 27J. LitetaM
  • 22R. KoflerD
  • 9Kevin CarlosF
Coach: F. Pisacane

Form going into Monza vs Cagliari

Monza

All competitions we cover

  • L1-3away to Lazio11 October 2026
  • W2-1Sassuolo18 September 2026
  • L2-3away to Lecce13 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Parma6 September 2026
  • L2-3Udinese29 August 2026

Cagliari

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Juventus11 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Udinese19 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Atalanta12 September 2026
  • W1-0Lecce7 September 2026
  • L0-1Inter30 August 2026

What these results say

  • Monza scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Monza conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Monza.
  • Cagliari scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Cagliari had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Monza112181725-87
9Cagliari115151015-516

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Monza vs Cagliari

  • 30 March 2025Cagliari 3–0 MonzaSerie A
  • 5 January 2025Monza 1–2 CagliariSerie A
  • 16 March 2024Monza 1–0 CagliariSerie A
  • 26 November 2023Cagliari 1–1 MonzaSerie A

The full Monza vs Cagliari record →

Leading scorers: Monza and Cagliari

Monza

GoalsAssists

  • Gustavo Varela91

Cagliari

GoalsAssists

  • D. Maldini50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Monza beat Cagliari 4–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Cagliari at 42% and given a win for Monza 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Eddy Kouadio 39' for Monza, Gustavo Varela 47' for Monza, Jay Robinson 66' for Monza, Gustavo Varela 79' for Monza. On expected goals it finished 2.08–1.92.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Monza a 43.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 37.1% after a win, 44.2% after a draw, 47.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 37.1%, 6.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Monza v Cagliari has moved

First published on 5 Oct at 32% / 29% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 30% / 28% / 42%: the biggest move is Cagliari's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Monza win30%▼ −2
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Cagliari win42%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.